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NATO treaty with Ukraine – ISW explains why it pushes for unprofitable negotiations

Analysts recalled that The Wall Street Journal reported on the preparation of an agreement on rapprochement with NATO.

The exact terms of the pact have not been determined, but officials have indicated that the pact will provide Ukraine with advanced military equipment, weapons and ammunition, but not Article V protection or an obligation to station NATO forces in Ukraine, which is not in line with Kiev’s demands.

Officials said the pact aims to secure Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can mount a counteroffensive that will put Russia at the negotiating table and deter any Russian aggression in the future.

The publication notes that these officials expressed doubts about the ability of the West to withstand prolonged hostilities, the large number of losses that Ukraine will suffer in such a prolonged war, and the ability of Ukrainian forces to fully retake long-occupied territories such as Crimea.

In doing so, the WSJ compared the private reservations of these officials with US President Joe Biden’s public statements of support that did not mention peace talks, and with the fears of Central and Eastern European leaders that premature peace talks would encourage further Russian aggression.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given no indication that he is willing to compromise on his stated maximalist goals, which include “neutrality” and the demilitarization of Ukraine, as well as de facto regime change in Kiev, as ISW constantly reports.

Key takeaways from ISW

  • Self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, possibly to help Russia and China circumvent sanctions.
  • US President Joe Biden rejected China’s peace plan.
  • Lukashenko has breathed new life into the Kremlin’s information operation on Transnistria by falsely claiming that the opening of the Transnistrian front is in the interests of the West.
  • Russian authorities detained more than 50 people at anti-war demonstrations in 14 Russian cities on February 24.
  • Wagner PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and his supporters have criticized Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for allegedly liking anti-war posts on Instagram by his son-in-law Alexei Stolyarov.
  • Russian troops continued to deliver ground strikes northwest of Svatovo and in the Kremennaya area.
  • Russian forces made minor territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka and continued to carry out ground strikes along the entire front line in the Donetsk region.
  • Russian troops continue to fight for effective combat operations on the front line in the Zaporozhye region.
  • Russian forces continue to suffer significant casualties on the battlefield, prompting some bloggers to criticize the Russian Defense Ministry for failing to acknowledge the extent of the casualties.
  • The Russian authorities are using Ukrainian children from Mariupol as propaganda to falsely present Russia as the “savior” of the occupied territories.

Note that decisions on the treaty in the Alliance are made only by consensus. Therefore, a convergence agreement must be supported by all member countries.

Earlier, RBC-Ukraine reported that in February in Paris, at a trilateral meeting, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for peace talks with Russia.

Also, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine is conducting technical preparations for the de-occupation of its territories. This applies to both weapons and the teachings of soldiers.

Recall that earlier the former commander of US troops in Europe, retired General Ben Hodges, said that Ukraine could return Crimea by the end of summer 2023.

We also wrote that, according to Zelensky, peace between Russia and Ukraine is impossible without the de-occupation of Crimea.

Read urgent and important messages about Russia’s war against Ukraine on the channel RBC-Ukraine on Telegram.

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