The situation in Belarus has been particularly tense since the August presidential elections last year. According to the official results, the victory was won by the former head of state Alexander Lukashenko, but the opposition believes that the election results are fake and the European Union, as well as other Western countries, have refused to recognize them.
The election was followed by widespread protests against Lukashenko, who sought to quell them by all means, including brutal violence against demonstrators.
The crisis in Belarus also poses international challenges. There is a risk that it may intensify in the near future Belarusian and Russian integration, which in turn could increase Moscow’s military and political influence in the region.
To discuss the domestic and foreign aspects of the crisis in Belarus, the Delfi portal invited Anna Maria Diner, an analyst at the Polish Institute of International Relations, to speak. The expert explains the current challenges facing the Lukashenko regime and outlines possible scenarios for Belarus’ political future.
How long can the Lukashenko regime – internationally condemned, widely unrecognized and sanctioned – survive?
That is not easy to answer. I can imagine that the Lukashenko regime can last a long time, and we have many examples of countries that exist without international recognition.
It will all depend on Russia and the extent to which Moscow will be able to support the Belarusian authorities. If the future of Belarus depended solely on the wishes of the country’s society, major political changes could take place quite soon. Today, however, society is under enormous pressure from the regime, so it is difficult to imagine that there will be people-centered change in Belarus.
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