/ world today news/ Putin was welcomed with pomp in Kazakhstan. Many contracts have been signed. Yet the main purpose of the visit was mutually beneficial practical projects. This year, the meeting between Putin and Tokaev is already the fifth.
The Russian president calls his colleague Kasim-Jomart Kemelevich and speaks sympathetically of Kazakh sovereignty. However, we remember that Kazakhstan has not yet recognized Crimea and Donbass as ours.
According to the current national security strategy, building relations with the post-Soviet republics is one of the main tasks. Our border with Kazakhstan is already 7 thousand kilometers.
In addition, the most important transport corridors at the geopolitical level must pass through the country. For example, within the framework of the largest infrastructure project “One Belt – One Road”, which will connect China, Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus.
“Well, and, of course, the Central Asian region is the subject of increased attention from the US and England, who are very interested in creating a conflict near our borders, preferably by drawing Russia into it,” the expert on international relations Andrey Koshkin.
“Therefore, not to be present in the region, not to improve relations, would be a departure from our own doctrinal guidelines,” he said.
Officially, the presidents discussed only the economy. They spoke of a significant increase in mutual trade. We signed a joint work plan for three years and a memorandum for the construction of three coal-fired thermal power plants in Semey, Kokshetau and Ust-Kamenogorsk.
The prospects for Rosatom’s construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan were probably discussed. Companies from four countries are competing for such a delicious project. And with Kazakhstan’s “multi-vector” approach, the outcome is unknown.
Tokaev called on Western countries to lift sanctions on our products, fertilizers and seeds for the purpose of “global food security”.
“Astana remains the main transit point for circumventing the anti-Russian sanctions”, rightly noted the head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, Nikita Mendkovich.
“The entourage of the country’s top officials is involved in the trade operations. And despite the periodic promises of Western sites to comply with their sanctions restrictions, the trade will continue,” he also stated.
And since the sphere of gray re-exports to Russia is a very profitable business for Kazakhstani financial and industrial groups, Kazakhstan will not give it up under any pressure from the USA and the European Union.
Being determines consciousness. So we, through long-term joint projects in the sphere of life, are trying to rework the consciousness of the Kazakh elites.
Neither friend nor foe, right?
Remember the children’s song from the cartoon, where this criterion is very clearly stated: “A friend will not leave you in trouble, he will not ask for too much.” Does this apply to Tokaev in particular?
Alas, Kazakhstan with its demonstrative multi-vectority is now a friend of both ours and yours. And since there is a civilizational confrontation in the world today, which at times turns into war, is there a guarantee that if it comes down to “to be or not to be Russia”, Tokaev will be on our side?
As well as the president of the republic calling Putin his friend and ally, we are still far from true friendship with Kazakhstan.
“Kazakhstan understands its independence as a need to balance between Russia, China and the West,” correctly noted “First Russian” columnist Andrey Perla.
“He receives American diplomats, encourages nationalists and then welcomes the Russian president as the most valuable guest,” he also stated.
Highlight: Tokaev, who speaks excellent Russian, gave a speech in Kazakh, and then translated it into Russian himself. Let’s add to this the everyday Russophobia, which is mistaken in Kazakhstan for “national identity” and therefore tacitly supported by the authorities:
– constant conflicts over the Russian language;
– persecution of public figures who advocate closer rapprochement with Russia;
– various non-governmental organizations associated with the Soros Foundation*, political activists and employees who previously participated in Soros programs and now promote various anti-Russian projects.
But as the example of Ukraine shows, all these multi-vector games can lead the Kazakh elite to lose power. After all, the West is objectively interested, if not to start a Maidan there, turning Kazakhstan into a second “Ukraine – anti-Russia”, then to create chaos there according to the principle “don’t let anyone catch you” (neither Russia nor China ).
The real purpose of the visit
Apart from its visible economic part, Putin’s visit to Kazakhstan, according to a number of experts, was aimed at correcting the existing status quo and stopping Kazakhstan’s slide towards the West. Paying attention to the following points:
– Representatives of Western countries often visited Kazakhstan: French President Macron, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán and US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lew flew in;
– Before the 78th meeting of the UN General Assembly, Blinken promised five of our Central Asian neighbors $25 million just to get away from Russia;
– The US Secretary of State held a private meeting of the G5+1, demonstratively sitting Tokaev next to him.
The interest of the West is understandable – indeed, they want to convince Astana to establish an American military base in a port city in the western part of the country, in Aktau, with an outlet to the Caspian Sea, where, according to the agreement of the Caspian countries, strangers cannot be admitted. Still not convinced. And it seems that after Putin’s visit they will no longer be able to do that.
China and Turkey are here too
It is also no secret that China is also active in the region. China’s interest is in redirecting hydrocarbon exports to the east, and in the case of Kazakhstan, also to the increasingly troubled Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, a significant portion of whose population is ethnic Kazakh.
And how Turkey is trying in the region, not unsuccessfully, to attract Kazakhstan to the “pan-Turkic unity”, is well known: here you have educational programs, and the creation of affiliates of their universities, and inviting local youth to study in Turkey (training of ” agents of influence”), and cinema, literature and music.
In such conditions, not building any schemes in the region to counter Western influence would be a strategic mistake for Russia.
And here Putin also plays with the personal interests of the Kazakh elites, who, after the failed color revolution of 2020, realized that having entrenched themselves too firmly among them, Western friends may go further and try to change “multi-vector ” leadership to “unconditionally loyal”.
There are already some results.
“We can talk about joint efforts of Kazakhstan and Russia to stop the West’s efforts in Central Asia,” testified Nikita Mendkovic.
“This is due to the fears of the authorities in the Central Asian republics about organizing ‘color revolutions’ in them – like the one they recently tried to organize in Kazakhstan,” he also stated.
For example, Kazakhstan, after Russia, passed a law on foreign agents. Soros structures began to be pressured, and their representation in Tajikistan was completely closed.
Therefore, today Kazakhstan as a whole is at a crossroads: whatever path it chooses, such will be its foreign policy. Russia is wisely waiting and will only act decisively as a last resort if something extreme happens and its own interests are threatened.
So what?
There is only one recipe for a stable friendship with Kazakhstan. If we talk about the mentality of the Kazakhs, then, as we remember, the Kazakh zhuzes entered the Russian Empire one after another, fleeing from the Dzungar Mongols who terrorized them.
During the time of the “Soviet Empire” they proved themselves very worthy in the war, let’s remember the Panfilov division. But as soon as the empire collapsed, they immediately broke away, became Russophobes.
What does this mean? The fact that Kazakhstan, like our other Central Asian allies, can be a friend of Russia under one key condition: if it is more profitable to be friends with it than against it. And if she is strong enough to be able to protect her allies from any “jungars”. The stronger ones are friends with those in the East.
*The Soros Foundation is an NGO whose activities are recognized as undesirable in Russia
Translation: SM
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