/ world today news/ The NATO summit in Vilnius began on Tuesday. As expected, within the framework of the meeting, the President of Ukraine Zelensky intends to raise again the issue of the country’s entry into NATO. In addition, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg may officially announce the deployment of 300,000 troops in Europe and additional measures to strengthen the bloc. What does this mean for Russia?
Literally a day before the summit, it became clear that Germany and the USA intend to block Ukraine’s application for membership in the Alliance. This is reported by the German newspaper “Bild”, citing familiar sources. In addition, according to sources, Berlin and Washington are pressuring other countries of the Alliance to join their position.
It is specified that the USA and Germany plan to sign a declaration with Ukraine, which “barely exceeds the document signed in Bucharest in 2008”. This means supporting the general course in NATO without specifics. “Bild” also established that Zelensky, after learning about such plans, allegedly became very angry.
However, the disappointments with Zelensky’s office did not end there. Thus, the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Dmitry Kuleba, stated on his social networks that his country has simplified the path to membership in the military bloc by canceling the Membership Action Plan (MAP). He also welcomed this “long-awaited decision”.
True, a few hours later, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg came out with a refutation of the message. The alliance is discussing a package of proposals for Ukraine, eliminating the need to implement the MAP, but no decision has yet been made, he explained.
The work of the Ukraine-NATO Council is a separate issue. “The Wall Street Journal” indicates that Ukraine will have the right to convene meetings of the Council, will be able to create working committees and make decisions that will be binding on other countries. Former NATO Assistant Secretary General Camille Grand pointed out in this regard that the Ukraine-NATO Council will be more important than many people think.
“The USA and Germany, as major NATO countries, recognize the obvious truth – Ukraine no longer has a place in the Alliance. The inclusion of the country in the union will have enormous consequences in the field of security and economy. Moreover, Ukraine is able to simply destroy the bloc from within,” says Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor at the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, an expert of the Valdai Club.
“At the same time, other candidate countries for the role of app blockers are not pulling back. For example, even Turkey could not realize this problem. The topic of Ukraine in the current conditions is too important politically and calls into question the existence of the Alliance in its current form. Vetoing Zelensky’s candidacy is a clear sign that Ukraine will not join the Alliance until the end of the military conflict, this issue has been put on hold,” the expert predicted.
“Berlin has always been less willing to make direct commitments to Ukraine. After all, NATO membership in itself is half the trouble. The fifth article of the Charter of the Alliance, which guarantees the protection of all members of the association, worries Germany much more. Here you will have to send troops,” adds Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs”.
“Accordingly, until NATO expansion was fraught with the risks of deploying real troops, everything was done easily and simply. Now the situation is completely different. Therefore, countries like Germany, which initially felt fears, feel even more anxious,” the political scientist continues.
“As for the US, it is NATO’s main fighting force. Washington can fully appreciate all the risks of such an expansion of the Alliance to the East. And the war with Russia is not exactly the dream of anyone in the world,” the interlocutor notes ironically. “One is the support, which not only does not stop, but also increases. This story unfolds on a conditionally voluntary basis – the United States has decided that it must help Ukraine, so it helps. If they get tired, they can stop doing it without any aggravating consequences for them. With NATO membership, this will no longer be possible,” Lukyanov claims.
“As for the chipboard, I would not attach much importance to it. If Ukraine’s accession to NATO becomes a fact, then there will be no talk of the usual procedure. Initially, this procedure was applicable to Central European countries. And here we are talking about a large belligerent state. In this case, it would be strange to start with formal criteria such as the MAP,” Lukyanov believes.
General plans of NATO
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last Friday that the North Atlantic alliance intends to deploy around 300,000 troops to Europe. At the same time, they will all be on high alert. It is specified that a significant part of the contingent will be air and sea combat forces.
In addition, within the framework of the high-level meeting in Vilnius, NATO plans to adopt three defense plans to “fight the main threats” – Russia and terrorism. One plan is for the North and the Atlantic Ocean, another for Central Europe and a third for the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions.
The Secretary General also noted that NATO members at the meeting will set 2% of GDP as the minimum amount of annual defense spending. In 2023, the alliance plans to increase military spending by 8.3%. Among European allies and Canada, it would be the largest increase in decades.
According to experts, the alliance will not stop there. “For example, the deployment of 300 thousand military personnel is of great importance in the context of potential threats to Russia. The statements made earlier are one. And this is completely different – real actions”, notes Fedor Lukyanov. “The alliance has additional forces and is actively strengthening itself. We have entered a full-blown cold war in its most acute form. And here, unfortunately, it would be naive to believe that NATO will remain the same organization as it was in the previous decades,” he notes.
“The North Atlantic Alliance is once again pushing the situation towards another rather serious round of escalation between the bloc and Russia. What is important is not even that the contingent is deployed, but the fact that it will be on high alert. That is, in a very short time, these forces can be transferred to the western borders of our country,” adds Stanislav Tkachenko.
“Obviously, Russia cannot ignore these actions. I do not exclude that the union itself can accept the decisions made as something symbolic, intended for many years to come. In addition, they can hope that they will never have to implement their plans to the full extent,” the interlocutor claims.
“We, of course, have to accept this as a fact and react accordingly. I believe that some of this activity is already underway. Finland’s accession to NATO led to the creation of new military districts and armies. In this regard, we can say that Russia is morally prepared for the fact that the Alliance will escalate the situation near our borders,” concluded Tkachenko.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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