The chair of the National Public Health Emergency Team’s (Nphet) epidemiological modelling advisory group, Philip Nolan, has expressed regret that a communication breakdown allowed for the uncontrolled spread of COVID-19 over the Christmas period in 2020. Nolan, who is now the director general of Science Foundation Ireland, stated that had he communicated “more forcefully” when discussing the modelling and social restrictions for Christmas with the government, the situation might have been different. Households were permitted to mix during the festive period, which led to daily new case numbers rising to the thousands in early January 2021, and the government had to establish the longest lockdown of the pandemic.
Nolan and other members of the emergency team explained to the government late in November 2020 that even a “modest increase” in the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Ireland over the Christmas period would lead to new cases reaching 400 a day in early January. However, daily new cases in late November were at 250 and falling, leading to the view that 400 “didn’t sound unmanageable.” The final slide of the presentation provided to the government stated that cases could exceed 400 in early/mid-January 2021, which Nolan thinks created the wrong impression. At an event entitled, “There’s So Much to Know: Post-Pandemic Reflections on the Human Thirst for Knowledge and its Value and Utility,” Nolan addressed the Royal Irish Academy on Wednesday evening and showed the members the models presented to the government in the November 2020 meeting.
Prof Nolan acknowledged the “political pressure” to ease restrictions on social activity and reopen hospitality in the Christmas period but stated that it was “impossible for me to get out of my head that if I communicated the import of this model better and more forcefully, things might have been different.”
When it comes to the possible future pandemics, Nolan expressed his belief that Ireland is “not yet better prepared,” but measures are “beginning to be put in place” to protect against similar public health challenges. He stated, “We are capable of preparing ourselves. There is a formal review done, sitting on the Minister’s desk. There has been lots of thought and lots of reflection.” He also said that the government’s investment required in preparing the country for the next pandemic is modest in the grand scheme of things, adding that it will have the added benefit of giving Ireland a much more effective health system.
He highlighted that experts understand very little about how society works, especially the human social sciences – a problem that has become apparent during the pandemic. Nolan expressed his concern that there was not enough knowledge and use of such expertise in public policy and democratic processes during the pandemic.
In his lecture, Nolan compared the response to the pandemic with the required actions by government bodies to combat other challenges, such as climate change. He remarked, “So often, sitting at my desk during the pandemic, considering how to understand, explain and how to manage the appropriate technical and social response to some new development, it was hard to escape this thought – if we were finding this so challenging, how are we going to successfully address the climate and biodiversity loss?”
Nolan expressed hope and inspiration from two sources: the first is “the extraordinary creative and intellectual capacity of the academic colleagues, the public health experts, and the public servants with whom I worked.” The second is “this particular bond and trust that developed between that group, the political system, and the public.”
