The initial situation is rather difficult according to the paper form: the clear election winner FPÖ only has the ÖVP option in view of the equally clear rejections from the SPÖ, NEOS and the Greens. However, this further rules out a coalition with FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl – but not with the FPÖ. Even if the ÖVP avoids explicitly specifying what this exactly means: a chancellor or minister Kickl is therefore probably out of the question for the people’s party.
Despite the big loss, the ÖVP has the most options: with the FPÖ, Kickl should – similar to Jörg Haider in 2000 – forego joining the government; a two-party coalition with the SPÖ with the razor-thin majority of two seats; a three-party coalition with SPÖ and NEOS or the Greens, even if the latter is currently considered unlikely. The SPÖ, NEOS and the Greens each only have the People’s Party option.
NR election
Results in detail
Reduce mortgages, build trust
In any case, a lot of clarification will be required in advance – both among the potential coalition partners and with and towards the Federal President. The party discussions are also likely to be just as important for building trust. Because no matter what the constellation: the experiences of the past are perceived at least as much as a mortgage as a basis on which to build. This applies to ÖVP-SPÖ as well as to FPÖ-ÖVP. Even in the case of a lack of experience – for example from NEOS in a federal government – it is important to learn to better assess this through negotiations.
Coalition negotiations last on average 60 days
The political scientist Karin Praprotnik said in an interview with Ö1 on Monday morning that the long-term average of forming a government in Austria takes “a good 60 days”. She suspected that it could take longer this time if, for example, potential exploratory talks failed and then a different variant had to be started all over again.
The ÖVP, which is the only party to have several options, could of course also hold talks in parallel – as it did in 1999/2000, when it was the third strongest party and ultimately nominated Wolfgang Schüssel as chancellor. Schüssel was officially negotiating with the SPÖ at the time. After the talks failed, an agreement with the FPÖ was reached so quickly that it was clear that parallel negotiations had been taking place in the background. This is also understandable in terms of negotiation tactics, as it greatly improves your own position in negotiations.
There are also two state elections coming up soon: in Vorarlberg on October 13th and in Styria on November 24th. The ÖVP is fighting for the state governor’s chair, which makes it even more unlikely that the ÖVP will be elected before November 24th.
More on the topic
Looking for the next government
Van der Bellen will speak to party leaders
On Sunday evening after the election results, van der Bellen announced the guidelines that he would follow when forming a government – and also provided corresponding information to the parties. Essentially, he mentioned a personal relationship of trust as well as a commitment to liberal democracy and its institutions and a pro-European orientation.
After the formal act of dismissing the existing government and entrusting it with the continuation of official business, Van der Bellen will probably begin the first round of talks with the party leaders on Wednesday.
The conversation with Kickl, whom Van der Bellen – at the request of the then ÖVP Chancellor Sebstian Kurz – had dismissed from his office as Interior Minister during the “Ibiza affair” will be followed with particular interest. Kickl and his party have repeatedly criticized Van der Bellen in recent years. If Kickl does not receive the mandate to form a government from Van der Bellen, that would probably strengthen the FPÖ in its criticism.
Jabloner: The constitution does not specify any procedure
The former President of the Administrative Court Clemens Jabloner – who served as Justice Minister in Brigitte Bierlein’s interim government – pointed out in the Ö1 interview the extensive freedom that the Constitution grants the Federal President when forming a government.
Giving a party the task of forming a government is a custom, but the procedure is strictly speaking not known in the constitution. The Federal President simply has to ensure that there is always a government in office and that he brings together a government “that will last in the National Council”, i.e. find a majority. According to Jabloner, the Federal Constitution of 1929 was deliberately designed to address a crisis situation.
Before the talks begin in the Hofburg, the parties discuss the election results and how to proceed internally in their committees. The SPÖ does it on Monday, everyone else does it on Tuesday. Praprotnik assumes that the parties will try to form a government by Christmas.
