Nasif in Al-Akhbar: Army Chief Aoun’s Rising Chances for Presidency Explained by Hezbollah

Nicolas Nassif wrote in Al-Akhbar:

The army chief’s visit to Paris reinforced his belief in the growing chances of his election as president. The man has the support, as it is reported, of the “quintet,” or at least most of them, without being public. But no one in the country named him or was committed to leading his campaign. Also, the most influential team did not say they were interested in his candidacy or concerned about his selection.

When Hezbollah is asked about its opinion on the Commander of the Army General Joseph Aoun as a possible candidate for the leadership of the republic, the relevant statement is that it has no candidate but the leader of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh. He never says that the latter is his candidate “at this time,” but only his only candidate, to say that he has no position on any other candidate, whatever it will be, because “his. the candidate himself.” The situation is summed up by these two Shiites, not just the party. If Hezbollah also wants to explain the reasons for choosing Franjieh and how they hold to him, they are different: He is going to be elected in 2015. He is a permanent candidate for the president since 2004. He has been promised to support him and stand with him -sit Michel Aoun eight years ago. The most important thing about the reasons for the nomination and support is that Hezbollah knows him completely and is a reliable friend. As for the most important thing, the a person “experienced in the past and in the present.” This is what appears, in the end, as the two Shiites asked for the leader of the Marada Movement as their only candidate, whether it is long or short. This is also the focus of the conversation that the other party wants regarding the election of Franjieh in particular, and no one else, and the guarantees that he offers to his opponents. in the Christian parties, the first of which is the Free Patriotic. Motion, so they support it.

The other part of this opinion is Hezbollah’s belief that there can be no candidate by rejecting Franjieh’s nomination – and he, like all other parties, – means the arrival of a president who opposes him himself, against being against him and against his weapons. . That is what will stop him from electing such a president, regardless of how long the vacancy lasts.

When the question is asked again to Hezbollah about the army chief and the chances of being elected as the president of the republic with his support, there are three answers:
The first is that Hezbollah does not have another candidate that it can trust with confidence and will not let it down, similar to its experience with former President Michel Suleiman, who is promise for the face. Therefore, the nomination of Franjieh is not seen as the first option, but as the only option. He does not bind himself to the factor of time, and he never asks him to abandon his claim. He was not asked to do so in November 2015, when President Marada in Paris concluded an agreement with President Saad Hariri that almost brought him to the presidency with a likely majority Instead that, he was asked to meet with President Michel Aoun and reach an understanding with him as a result of the promise given by the leader of the Change and Reform Bloc at the time to support his election as president for the Republic.
Second, Hezbollah separates Aoun as army chief from Aoun, a possible presidential candidate. The first thing he says about him as the army chief is that the close relationship he had with him was never broken, despite the ups and downs. He is satisfied with the “excellent” role played by the army in the south along with the struggle against the war against Israel, thanks to the orders sent to him by his commander. He will not forget to mention his support for the continuation of the leader in his position in Yarzeh for one more year, and that he helped his friends to provide a quorum for the session of the parliament on December 15, 2023 to extend it under the law, which caused. a further split in the party’s relationship with the Free Patriotic Movement and its head, MP Gebran Bassil. Add to this the occasional, almost daily relationship between his son-in-law, retired Brigadier General Andre Rahal, and the leader of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, MP Muhammad Raad. These attributes do not hide, in Hezbollah’s mind, several disappointing experiences in the relationship with Aoun, of which the Tayouneh incident was not the first, and the Kahala incident was not the last. of them.

The most surprising thing for Hezbollah was what happened during the events of October 17, 2019, when gunmen blocked the road to the south at Khaldeh. He intervened with the commander and asked him to open a path “not only the path of the Shiites and the south, but the path of the opposition.” The answer then, according to what has been reported, was that it would be difficult for him to open the road by force. The party threatened to open it by force and were careful not to do so at the same time for fear of sparking sectarian strife after it was confirmed that the bandits were Sunnis. music, on the direction of the opposing team. He complained to the President of the Republic and asked him to press the Chief of the Army, who again refused the President’s request on the grounds that he could be exposed to “American sanctions and between -national.” What the party does not deny is that Aoun was not a candidate for the post of army chief in 2017, but accepted it willingly after the President of the Republic insisted on it.

What the party does not say and leaves its correspondent to decide: “If the leader had to fear American and international sanctions at that time during the coup against the state, what would he do as president if he found himself in a similar predicament. the other side this time there was a struggle?”

Thirdly, the party shows an interest in limiting its relationship with Aoun in his capacity as a military commander, while at the same time he is willing to cooperate with him. Before he joined the supporters of his expansion there was a counter-attack which led to an agreement between him and the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement to appoint a new military commander, first before the Maronite Patriarch Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai, and the then the Americans , stood against him and dismissed him from office, which made him go for the option to extend for one year.