NASA’s Plan to Alert the Public of an Apocalyptic Asteroid Strike
Imagine a scenario where a massive asteroid, six miles wide, hurtles towards Earth with the potential to cause unimaginable destruction. The impact would be catastrophic, flattening forests, triggering tsunamis, and enveloping the planet in darkness. This is precisely what happened 66 million years ago when the Chicxulub impactor wiped out 75% of Earth’s species, including the dinosaurs. However, if a similar event were to occur today, NASA assures us that we would have ample warning and even the possibility of preventing such an apocalypse.
NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office is at the forefront of finding, tracking, and assessing the risk associated with potentially hazardous asteroids in our solar system. Their mission is clear: “We definitely want to find all those before they find us,” says Lindley Johnson, Lead Program Executive for the Planetary Defense Coordination Office.
To achieve this goal, NASA collaborates with the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a global coalition of astronomers. Together, they have established an international warning system that would notify the public in the event of a dangerous asteroid heading towards Earth. The process begins with party members who detect the threat sharing their observations across the IAWN network. This information is then verified and assessed to determine the level of danger.
Once all parties agree that Earth should brace for impact, NASA would issue an alert. While Lindley Johnson admits he doesn’t have a “red phone on [his] desk,” he assures us that formal procedures are in place to provide notification of a serious impact. If the asteroid were headed towards the United States, NASA would notify the White House, which would subsequently release a formal statement to the public. In the case of an international threat, IAWN would notify the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs.
But how does NASA find and track these potentially hazardous asteroids? An asteroid is considered “potentially hazardous” if it is larger than approximately 460 feet across and intersects Earth’s orbit at a minimum distance of 0.5 astronomical units. Currently, there are about 2,300 known potentially hazardous asteroids, with approximately 153 of them being larger than 0.6 miles across – large enough to cause a catastrophe if they were to strike Earth.
To locate and monitor these asteroids, NASA and its partners in the IAWN continuously search for new ones while also tracking those already discovered. All observational data is compiled into a database at the Minor Planet Center. So far, IAWN has identified over 34,000 near-Earth asteroids. With this wealth of information, NASA can confidently predict their orbits for at least a century into the future.
While the chances of a catastrophic asteroid impact are slim, with the odds of the potentially hazardous Bennu asteroid hitting Earth in 159 years being only about one in 2,700, NASA remains prepared. In 2021, they launched their first planetary defense test mission, which involved ramming an uncrewed spacecraft into an asteroid to alter its orbit away from Earth. The mission was a success, and NASA plans to test additional deflection techniques in the future.
One such technique under development is the “gravity tractor.” This method involves sending a spacecraft to position itself next to the asteroid and allowing gravitational interaction to pull the asteroid out of its orbit. Additionally, NASA is exploring the use of an ion beam to shift an asteroid’s course. However, these methods require at least five to ten years of advanced notice to effectively prevent an impact.
In the event that NASA only has a few months of warning, there would be little they could do to save Earth from the impending disaster. Therefore, IAWN’s strategy focuses on finding asteroids decades or even centuries before they pose a threat. This allows ample time to take action while the asteroids are still in space, ensuring that catastrophic events are avoided here on Earth.
The possibility of an apocalyptic asteroid strike may seem like the stuff of science fiction, but NASA’s diligent efforts and collaboration with the IAWN provide reassurance that we are not defenseless. By continuously searching for and tracking potentially hazardous asteroids, NASA aims to give us the best chance of averting disaster and preserving life on our planet. So, rest assured, if an asteroid is on a collision course with Earth, NASA will be there to alert us and potentially save the day.
