NASA’s Mars Sample Return (MSR) program is facing funding and architecture challenges, according to a recent audit conducted by NASA’s Office of Inspector General (OIG). The audit revealed that the program’s problems highlight the ongoing challenges that NASA faces in managing large missions.
One of the key findings of the audit is that the spiraling cost estimates of the MSR program can be attributed to a lack of a stable design for its key elements and initial over-optimism in its development. The assessment of an independent review board in September 2023 concluded that the program’s cost and schedule estimates were unrealistic, with a total cost likely to be between $8 billion and $11 billion. As a result, NASA initiated a reassessment of the overall MSR architecture.
The OIG audit also highlighted the Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) as a particular focus of concern. The CCRS is being developed by NASA and will be installed on the Earth Return Orbiter built by the European Space Agency. Its purpose is to capture the sample container placed into Mars orbit, sterilize it, and seal it in a capsule for return to Earth. However, the CCRS faced technical and cost challenges, leading to delays and additional costs of $200 million. These delays threaten the MSR Program’s ability to proceed into development and significantly impact the launch schedule.
While the report acknowledged that supply chain problems, inflation, and pandemic-related issues may have contributed to cost increases, it emphasized that these factors alone should not be blamed for MSR’s costs. Large missions historically suffer from issues like initial over-optimism and suboptimal design/architecture in their early phases.
The OIG audit also highlighted that the cost and schedule problems faced by MSR are not unique but rather reflect a pattern observed in NASA’s flagship science missions. A Large Mission Study conducted in 2020 identified the need for more guidance during the early “pre-formulation” phases of flagship missions. However, NASA has yet to incorporate the study’s results and recommendations into its practices and guidance for executing such missions. The ongoing issues with the MSR Program suggest that NASA should reconsider its current practices.
The release of the OIG audit coincides with crucial decisions about the future of MSR. NASA has been operating under a continuing resolution that funds the government at 2023 levels since the start of the 2024 fiscal year. However, there are significant differences between a House bill and a Senate bill regarding MSR funding for 2024. While the House bill proposes nearly $950 million, the Senate bill offers only $300 million. In response to this uncertainty, NASA directed the MSR program to slow down work in case it receives only the Senate funding. This includes pausing work on the CCRS after its preliminary design review.
To add to the complexity, Congressional leadership recently announced an agreement to move forward on half of the appropriations bills, including the commerce, justice, and science bill that funds NASA. The agreement aims to pass the bills by March 8, providing NASA with funding certainty for MSR this year. Additionally, the White House is expected to release its fiscal year 2025 budget proposal in the coming weeks.
In parallel, NASA is set to release the results of the reassessment of the MSR architecture this month. While agency officials have indicated progress in this effort, they have not disclosed specific details about the new architectures under consideration.
The challenges faced by NASA’s MSR program highlight the complexities of managing large missions and the need for stable designs and realistic cost estimates. As decisions about funding and architecture loom, NASA must carefully consider the audit’s findings and recommendations to ensure the success of future flagship missions.