Meteorites won’t hit Earth in 1,000 years, published online in The Astronomical Journal by scientists at the Center for the Study of Near Earth Objects (NEOs), the Minor Planet Center and the Center for Astrophysics Observation. NASA-funded Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO)
They focused on asteroids around the Earth 50 million kilometers in diameter that were at least 1 kilometer in diameter. and calculate the probability that those rocks may collide with Earth in the future Along with creating a risk chart to determine if they are dangerous or not.
“We focus on objects larger than 1 kilometer in size, and we try to rank those objects in terms of the risk associated with impacts over a 1,000-year period, which is a longer time period than we normally analyze,” Davey said. said Davide Farnocchia, an astrophysicist at NASA JPL.
They found “no concerns” with space objects in terms of impact hazards over the next 100 years. And from a simulation of an orbit that extends for another 1,000 years, we get the same information that the Earth is safe from the collision of an asteroid larger than 1 kilometer.
The highest risk in the next 1,000 years will be from an asteroid called ‘1994 PC1’. It’s 1.1 km across, and the team estimates it has a 0.0151% chance of coming within 1.9 million km of Earth. emphasize that This result should not be considered ‘certain’ as there are still many objects that may have surfaced unknowingly.
“For other objects An ellipse of orbit can come close to Earth. So we still can’t completely rule out collisions in the next 1,000 years,” Farnoccia said. “Even so A collision from such a large object is absolutely impossible.”
Currently, NASA estimates that NEOs have been identified in about 95% of asteroids greater than 1 kilometer in size. Statistics estimate that meteorites larger than 1 kilometer in size hit the Earth every 700,000 years. It was enough to cause the death of many living beings.
While the asteroid that hit Earth and one of the causes of the dinosaurs’ extinction was about 10 kilometers across, NASA says it expects an asteroid more than 5 kilometers wide to strike every 30 million years, so to speak. that Earth is relatively safe from an asteroid disaster right now.
However, NASA has planned various possibilities to both prevent and identify more dangerous objects. This information will be of great importance in the future.
“Long-term hazard ratings are applicable to planetary defense (Earth),” the report states, “because the most dangerous NEOs should be objects of interest to observe more closely. as well as future exploration missions.”
Searched and edited by Vitit Borompichaichatkul
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