You can’t predict everything 100%, that’s the problem. The conventional companies do try to do this and to exclude extra risk, considerable extra margins are used to exclude as much as possible (which results in extra time/money/less performance). But what went wrong in the past was often ‘unforeseen’.
What SpaceX does is push the boundaries to see what works and what doesn’t in practice. Of course they also do this on the basis of technical calculations, but due to the iterative developments and many more tests, they run into many more problems that they can include in the next iteration. The chance that something ‘unforeseen’ will happen when it really matters is much smaller, because they have much more knowledge about the behavior of each component in the chain.
NASA has recognized for a reason that what SpaceX does is innovative and can also deliver reliable products faster and cheaper (otherwise the crew missions would never have been approved). SpaceX and NASA work very closely together in this area and if the development was done irresponsibly, NASA would certainly not have gone into it.
[Reactie gewijzigd door friend op 6 mei 2022 20:16]
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