Nakstad: This determines the new wave

According to The latest weekly report from the Institute of Public Health on respiratory infections it appears that new omicron variants of the coronavirus are on the rise, particularly in the Oslo area.

According to the institute, variants that are better at avoiding immunity and antibody treatment now dominate.

“Modified variants are those subgroups of BA. 5, and BQ. The 1.1 variant dominates among them and has had strong growth in the last two weeks, especially in Oslo. There is now also a BA increase. 2 recombinant XBB virus,” writes FHI.

Waiting for the new wave

In early November, FHI announced that Norway will probably experience a new wave of corona this winterwith increased spread of infection and increasing number of hospitalizations.

This is an expected development; the infection on the continent increased considerably earlier this fall and now several groups have contracted it offer of a fourth dose of vaccine.

Deputy Health Director Espen Rostrup Nakstad explains that the coronavirus has changed continuously during the pandemic.

– Since much of the world’s population is now vaccinated, several new variants of the virus are expected to “bypass immunity,” i.e., have changes in the spike protein, meaning antibodies don’t attach to the virus as well, says Da Nakstad to Dagbladet.

– This increases contagiousness somewhat, but there’s no evidence that people get more seriously ill from the new variants, she explains.

Promising numbers

– Are existing vaccines capable of handling the new variants and does deployment follow vaccine recommendations?

– It seems that previous vaccinations and previous illnesses protect well from becoming seriously ill, even with the new variants. The latest data from Norway shows that a decreasing proportion of hospitalized patients require intensive care, replies the deputy director of health.

At the same time, the number of new admissions has stabilized at around 200 per week. It provides an important lead for health authorities, Nakstad points out:

– If the new variants of the virus that are now starting to prevail cause more serious illness, we would probably already see it in the hospitalization data. But we have to keep an eye on it, as we don’t yet know which varieties will be dominant this winter.

Insecurity

The Directorate of Health still believes that there could be “a good deal” of corona infection this winter.

– But it’s not certain that we will have the same large waves of hospitalizations as before during the pandemic. What creates uncertainty, however, is how many will fall seriously ill with the flu this year and whether that coincides with an increase in covid-19 illness, says the deputy health director.

She asks people to be prepared that there could be “a lot of sickness and sick leave” this winter.

– Do not recommend upgrade dose

– That’s why we’re still very clear on the advice to stay home when you’re sick. So you don’t infect your work colleagues and help reduce the strain on the health service during the busiest winter months.

Disagreement on booster dose

According to the latest weekly report from FHI, the number of corona cases reported in recent weeks has remained relatively stable, at around 900.

As of November 20, 70% of people in the age group 75 and older and 61% of people in the age group 65-74 have received the fourth dose of the vaccine.

People in the 18-64 age group are also now being offered a fourth dose, but several professionals, including vaccine researcher Gunnveig Grødeland, went against this last week. The reason is that, according to her, the utility value does not outweigh the risk of serious side effects such as myocarditis/pericarditis heart ailments.

– We know that the likelihood of them happening increases with more doses. So I would advise healthy people against taking the fourth dose, she said.