One of the four accounts on Polymarket that fueled speculation with their big bets on a Trump victory has bet even higher, bringing the collective potential payout in the event of a Trump victory to nearly $43 million from $30 million on Friday Dollar increased on Monday morning, according to Polymarket’s activity tracker.
The four accounts on the cryptocurrency prediction exchange are owned by non-Americans or a single non-American, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The bets that accompanied the rise of Trump’s odds on Polymarket have attracted attention because they differ sharply from opinion polls. Polls have suggested a neck-and-neck race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
However, on Polymarket, Trump’s chances have increased to 63%, while Harris’ chances are at 37%. Odds on other prediction markets, such as Kalshi and PredictIt, have also increased.
This has raised questions among social media users and prediction market experts about whether big bets influence markets or whether prediction markets are simply a better leading indicator.
On Monday, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam said betting on the election “puts us in a very difficult position. It makes us a campaign worker.”
In a speech to a Wall Street trading group, Behnam said Congress should address allowing election-related betting because “we don’t want to jeopardize democracy and elections.”
Polymarket shares are valued based on the probability of the election outcome. For example, if Trump’s odds of winning the election are trading at 60 cents, that means the market sees a 60 percent chance of Trump winning, according to the website. If Trump wins, the buyer will receive $1 per share. If Trump loses, the stocks will become worthless.
Social media users had questioned whether high-ranking Americans could be behind the movements. The source confirmed to Reuters on Friday that Polymarket is vetting its largest traders and the accounts are based overseas.
Reuters could not immediately determine whether the four accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie – represent a single trader or multiple. Those accounts collectively held nearly $43 million worth of shares as of Monday, compared with $30 million on Friday. One share equals one dollar.
Bettors on Polymarket have bet $1.1 billion on the presidential race.
New York-based Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment on the surge in accounts on Monday.
Americans face severe restrictions on online betting on the US elections. The CFTC has in the past rejected requests to offer contracts or derivatives that would allow Americans to bet on elections.
The CFTC did not respond to a request for comment on Monday.
