Myanmar, the return of ethnic conflicts: this is the new drama of the Burmese war

YANGON (AsiaNews) – The advance of the three armed groups that are part of the Brotherhood Alliance is revealing that the control over the territory by ethnic militias is no less authoritarian than that exercised by the military junta. On the contrary, their administration of some parts of Myanmar is rekindling long-dormant ethnic conflicts, several reports by humanitarian organizations on the ground indicate.

A proto-state bordering Bangladesh. In recent months, several abuses have been documented by the Arakan Army which, on the verge of completely expelling its troops from Rakhine, the Burmese region bordering Bangladesh, has created a proto-state, to use the definition proposed by the research group of theInternational Crisis Group. Rakhine still depends on Naypyidaw for electricity, communications, banking services and essential goods. But most of the territory, home to more than a million people, is controlled by local militia.

The army is weakened by the conflict. It exploited the historic rivalry between the Buddhist Rakhine, who make up the ranks of the Arakan Army, and the Muslim Rohingya. The generals, increasingly weakened by the conflict, recruited (partly by force) the Rohingya population (against whom they themselves had previously railed), and the AA responded by massacring hundreds of Rohingya in the northern areas of the state.

Old and new fractures. This is a fracture that is both old and new and is also manifesting itself in areas under the control of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). Like the AA, which was born in Kachin State, these are groups originating from a specific region that in recent years and even more so since the outbreak of the civil conflict in 2021, have spread to different Burmese states. Also thanks to Chinese military support.

Palaung ethnic fighters. The TNLA, for example, is made up of ethnic Palaung fighters and originates from the hills around Namhsan in eastern Shan State. It has gone through phases and, like other ethnic militias, has respected the truce signed with the Burmese government for some years. The modern version of the militia dates back to 2009, the year in which the Arakan Army was also founded. Recruits for both groups have received training from the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), another ethnic militia active on the border with China.

A group that arose from the ashes of the Burmese Communist Party. The MNDAA, on the other hand, is made up of ethnic Han people (the majority in China) from the Kokang area. It arose from the ashes of the Burmese Communist Party, dissolved in 1989, and immediately signed a ceasefire with the Burmese army. Fighting resumed in 2015, when former pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi was in power. That year, the Arakan Army also joined the fighting in Shan for the first time. According to Bertil Lintner, a Swedish journalist and expert on Myanmar, the TNLA and the AA today represent “a new type of rebel army led by younger and more dynamic people” than in the past.

Strong ties with China. While the MNDAA, unlike the other two, has always maintained a much stronger relationship with China and with what is considered the most powerful militia in all of Myanmar, the United Wa State Army (UWSA). A relationship that has proven useful in the civil war that broke out in 2021 following the coup d’état led by the army, even if officially the UWSA has declared itself neutral. The conquest of the city of Lashio, in Shan, on August 3 by the MNDAA (a major turning point that for the first time presaged a total defeat of the Burmese army) was made possible by the weapons that the UWSA procures directly from China.

Control of ethnic militias. Ethnic militias have almost total control of the border territories. According to local sources, the conquest of Lashio has allowed a reallocation of resistance troops, in particular the People’s Defence Forces (PDF), the armed wing of the Government of National Unity in exile that is fighting alongside ethnic militias. The PDF are made up of young people from the Bamar ethnic group, the majority in Myanmar, who live in the central regions of the country and have only organized themselves after the army coup in 2021. They received training from the Karen National Liberation Army and they appear to be heading towards Mandalay, the former capital, the historic seat of Burmese rulers before the arrival of the English in 1885.

Predictions about the future of the city of Mandalay. On September 3, the city was hit by a Chinese-made rocket launched by ethnic militias for the third time this year. Internal sources are confident that Mandalay (and everything it represents) will fall into the hands of resistance forces by the end of the year. But experts fear that instead of bringing peace, a new phase of conflict could open up: the TNLA and MNDAA are already perceived as outsiders in many areas, and Mandalay, a multi-ethnic city of 1.5 million people, could pose an additional challenge to the Brotherhood Alliance militias. Some say this is precisely why anti-coup fighting groups are hesitant to retake Myanmar’s main cities.