A number of experts have argued that the Russian war machine is not at all as impressive and professional as one might think.
The Russians, despite their perceived military superiority, have had extensive logistical challenges and limited progress on the ground.
Two months into the war, President Vladimir Putin’s war is still not going as planned. And it seems to be punishing for those who lead.
Several Russian military leaders have been fired or imprisoned for wrongdoing or lack of progress on the battlefield in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.
It writes the research institute Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a rapport about the war on March 22nd.
Expert not surprised
It is possible that Ukrainian intelligence now warns that the commander of the Black Sea Fleet and his chief of staff have now been arrested. They may have been summoned to Moscow for consultations, been ignored or even arrested as claimed, Tom Røseth tells TV 2.
Røseth, who is an associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, believes that Putin in a dictatorial role will probably punish generals for mistakes and wants to maintain a culture of fear down in the military ranks.
“Putin is sending a signal that mistakes and major losses will not be accepted, and he expects full obedience,” he said.
One arrested, one under investigation
The Ukrainian intelligence shows according to ISW that the authorities have arrested the Commander-in-Chief of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Igor Osipov.
The Black Sea Fleet is part of the Russian Navy stationed in the Black Sea.
In addition, Sergei Mikhailovich Pinchuk, who is Vice Admiral and Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, will be under investigation.
ISW believes it is likely that the sanctions against both of these are due to the fact that the flagship “Moscow” sank on 14 April.
The incident was a major defeat for Putin, said researcher Ina Holst-Pedersen Kvam at the Norwegian Defense College Naval Academy.
– That the vessel is out of play is embarrassing for Russia. The Russian navy has been very central to Putin ever since he took over the Kremlin. He has all along had a clear desire to restore Russia’s great power status at sea. Soviet vessels like this represent his heyday, so he probably hardly slept very well last night, Kvam said to TV 2.
She thought the loss would undoubtedly affect how the navy operates further in the Black Sea.
– The flagship: Stock Photo of the missile cruiser Moscow, which was the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. On April 13, it sank. Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense / AP / NTB
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Several fired or relocated
The Ukrainian intelligence also shows that a number of leaders of the Russian ground forces have been fired, probably due to lack of progress.
– All have been removed from the positions due to unsatisfactory efforts, writes ISW.
This shall apply to:
- Lieutenant Colonel in the 6th Army
- Lieutenant Colonel and Deputy Commander of the 1st Tank Army
- Lieutenant Colonel in the 22nd Army Corps
Russia has not yet confirmed this information. It also does not have independent sources.
Removing Russian military leaders from their positions during the war is not a good idea, he said ISW.
– Cleaning out Russian officers will hardly improve the Russian attack ability. The officers who are deployed as replacements will probably be less experienced, and under intense pressure to achieve what appears to be unreasonable goals determined by the Kremlin, the research institute writes.
– EASTER CELEBRATION: Putin attended an Orthodox Easter celebration in Christ the Savior Cathedral in Moscow on Sunday. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP
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More brutal heirs
Tom Røseth points out that there could be several possible negative consequences of dismissing and arresting generals, including that leaders with heavy operational experience are replaced by leaders with less experience who know they have no room for error.
He also points to the American media Forbes, which has previously claimed that new military leaders are more brutal.
– At the lower general level, when it comes to, for example, leaders of tank divisions and infantry corps, these have been replaced by more brutal and aggressive heirs who must show action, according to Forbes, says Røseth.
– Seems frustrated
US intelligence has previously suggested that Putin be increasingly frustrated.
After lack of progress on the ground in Ukraine, the Russian president has had unusual outbursts of anger against people in his inner circle in the Kremlin.
Røseth believes Putin is betting that the Russian military will win in the end, and that the costs associated with personnel and materiel are subordinate.
– Putin seems frustrated by large losses, late progress and the need to adjust down the ambition to take Kyiv, Røseth says.
After a meeting with the Minister of Defense on Thursday, it was many who responded on the appearance of the president. TV 2 spoke with one of Norway’s foremost body language experts, who believes that there is a big difference in how Putin appears now, compared to the beginning of the invasion.
– The head is submerged, he speaks in a low voice and he is pale in the skin. To me, he appears resigned and resigned. It is just as if the air has completely gone out of him and that he is out of energy, said body language expert Vidar Hansen to TV 2.
Inna Sangadzhieva, senior adviser to the Helsinki Committee, believes that “the masks have been removed and we now see the real face of the Russian regime”. Watch video.
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