Poland will send four MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine “within a short time”, and Slovakia will deliver 13 aircraft of the same type.
President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has long asked the West for fighter jets. The USA and western countries have so far refused these requests, but this week several countries have turned the debate around.
– With Poland and Slovakia’s shipments, it is starting to become a number that provides a good strengthening of the Ukrainian air force, says Palle Ydstebø, lieutenant colonel and head teacher at the section for land power at the Norwegian Military Academy.
SECTION CHIEF: Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø thinks it is interesting that Poland and Slovakia are now sending combat aircraft. Photo: Terje Pedersen / NTB
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He points out that Ukraine already has these aircraft, and that it will therefore not have very large consequences for the warfare itself.
– But it is interesting that Poland is taking an initiative in the debate about sending fighter jets to Ukraine. It is perhaps even more important than the actual planes sent, and will probably start the debate about sending Western fighter planes again.
The aircraft were used in the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 80s, as a counterpart to the American F-15 and F-16 fighters.
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According to Ydstebø, the MiG-29 aircraft are designed to fight other aircraft to a greater extent than to be used for ground attacks. It will help Ukraine gain a better capacity to defend itself against Russian aircraft, in addition to being able to shoot down Russian cruise missiles.
– The planes can go straight into the Ukrainian air force. Ukraine has the expertise – they have the same aircraft type themselves. They can fly, so to speak, says the lieutenant colonel.
Ydstebø points out that there is great uncertainty about what capacity Russia may have been able to build up during the past year. Just as it looks now, according to Ydstebø, Ukraine is better equipped for an offensive.
– There is a lot of tension associated with it. Everyone expects that both parties will take the initiative when the ground holds and there are better opportunities for larger offensives. But the biggest uncertainty is linked to whether Russia has managed to build larger departments, which will enable them to achieve something.
– A clear signal to Russia
– Do not approach us F-16
Karsten Friis, senior researcher at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy, emphasizes that there is a big difference between the MiG planes and western planes, such as the F16.
– These are aircraft Ukraine already has, which are easy to integrate and put into use, he says.
RESEARCHER: Karsten Friis does not think we are getting close to supplies of F-16s to Ukraine. Photo: Mats Bakken
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When asked if he believes that Poland and Slovakia’s decision will lead to an F-16 debate in countries such as Norway, Friis replies that it will be a completely different process.
– I don’t think we’re getting close to that. It will be much more demanding, among other things runways will have to be fixed, there is a lot of logistics and training involved. It may take several years.
He also emphasizes that the way the war is today, it is much more correct that the Ukrainians get access to something they can use in the short term.
– But I think that several countries, such as the Czech Republic and other countries with MiG aircraft, can catch up. There has been a political maturation in Europe over the past year, and heavier and more advanced weapon systems are being provided.
Political development in the West
Discussions about sending fighter jets arose last year, but the Americans resisted Zelenskyi’s wish for fear of a further escalation. According to Friis, this fear is no longer relevant – rather a fear that Russia may win the war.
– Russia has nothing more to escalate with either. Partly because they are throwing everything they have, and partly because you have seen how Russian forces are advancing in Mariupol and Butsja. There has been a political development where the willingness to support Ukraine has increased, compare to the tank debate. Fighter planes are a continuation of this.
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According to Friis, there is still a certain amount of caution when it comes to the West and arms shipments, for example when it comes to very long-range weapons that can reach deep into Russia.
– But apart from that, in principle, there is nothing you cannot give. This with the F-16 is more about the fact that it is so demanding to achieve.
The importance of Ukraine having good air defense is still great, according to Friis.
– If Russia starts flying, they will also have much better progress on the battlefield. There is already an understanding in the political landscape that everyone must go as far down on their own stocks as we dare, and maybe a little more. At the same time, you start to approach the bottom of the cash register.
