Muhammad Karkouti writes: The global economy in 2024

The state of the global economy this year was not good enough to remove fears of the specter of recession. Slowdown was the prevailing feature in the past months, and fluctuations were also present on the international scene in general, especially in light of the decline in growth in economies that were considered the engine of global growth as a whole (China, India, and others). There is no doubt that the difficulties brought by the inflationary wave, the geopolitical disputes, and the trade battles that did not stop, especially between influential economies on the scene, are all factors that kept the growth indicators for the current year within the range of 3%. This percentage can be considered good because it was recorded during a period of worrying slowdown. However, the issue now is related to the path of growth in the coming year, which will serve as a real indicator of the performance of the global economy in the remainder of the current decade.
Expectations for growth in 2024 remain mixed, but not too far apart. It is noteworthy that the relevant international authorities do not hide their optimism for a year in which the required recovery is consolidated, despite the continuation of negative influences and their transition to the new year. The International Monetary Fund believes that the growth rate next year will not exceed 2.9%, meaning that it has reduced it, even slightly, from its level in the current year. Although the state of optimism is not comprehensive, the indicators will not be as bad as they were in the past two years, at least. The well-known American investment bank, Goldman Sachs, expects the global GDP to grow by 2.6%, which is less than that announced by the International Monetary Fund, while a poll of a number of economists conducted by Bloomberg showed that they expect a growth of this product to be around 2.1%. %.
In any case, the expected strong growth in income next year cannot be ignored, in light of the positive effects left by the continued decline in inflation around the world. The last factor represents the main axis for enhancing global growth, because central banks, even if they leave the door open to raising interest again, will not find any justification for this increase if legislators are able to control consumer prices. Growth was affected very seriously in the wake of an ongoing series of global monetary tightening, to the point that interest rates in some countries rose from almost zero to 6 and 7 percent. It also cannot be ignored that supply and demand have become more balanced on the international scene, with some gaps that can be filled if there is a new performance next year.
There is no doubt that the major problems faced by the global economy are continuously decreasing in severity, and this raises the realism of the expected state of optimism for the global gross domestic product even in the first half of next year. If some hotbeds of economic tension calm down a little, and there are breakthroughs here and there, it will be a healthy start in a year that will shape the global economy for the next stage.