MPS towards a future as a public company after the Treasury blitz. Eyes on Unicredit and Bper

MILANO — The fact that the Treasury sold 12.5% ​​of MPS in one hour last Tuesday, with the stock market price already back above the placement and two thirds of the package bought by Anglo-Saxon funds hedge (fans of an upcoming merger of the Sienese bank), says it all about investors’ expectations for the sector, which has been the flag of bulls for more than a year.

But in the silent offices of the bankers, their consultants and major partners – including the Treasury, which retains 26.73% of MPS – the air is not exactly big bang. Various financial analysts have also interpreted the Treasury’s second blitz after the 25% sale four months ago as indirect confirmation that the “third Italian banking hub” is yet to come. For multiple reasons, material and political.

Meanwhile land size reached by MPS (5.3 billion on the stock market, almost as Bper and more than half of Banco Bpm) make it too big to include it in one of the two candidates to be the third pole behind Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit. Furthermore, the situation created in Siena, after seven years of reorganization with public aid, will produce additional costs for those who buy: think of the end of the discounts granted by Bce on Sienese capital and credits, or to the 1 billion penalty on the distribution of policies with Axawhich expires in 2027. Finally, the Northern League wing of the government, openly opposed to selling MPS, is now rooted in the Siena area: and also in the board of directors, where it is said that the president Nicola Maione give some attention to the Northern League’s requests.

For all this, and if the market’s favor continues (MPS gains 38% in 2024 and 75% in six months), the simplest and most inertial way to honor the commitments made in 2017 with the EU could emerge. That of an Italian government that exits MPS in small steps, leaving behind a bank capable of standing on its own, at least a little. Last Thursday, after the proceeds of 650 millionni from MPS, Treasury Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti gave Parliament an important clue: «There is a specific commitment towards the EU Commission to relinquish control of the State», and now “We’re more or less there”.

With another placement within a year the Treasury would fall to 10-15%: and if in 2026 the outgoing Sienese board of directors presented its own list, the concept of public “control” would be overcome, with MPS sailing towards the model public company and without having to (anymore) incentivize potential buyers with billion-dollar tax breaks. If this is the case, those who love mergers will have to look elsewhere. On Unicredit and Bper, where new leaders will take office in April.

In the first case l’ad Andrea Orcel, who will be confirmed on the 12th, is widely expected to have an acquisition within the year. With tens of billions of free capital, he can afford the first move: but it’s hard for him to want to return to Sienavaluing 6 billion a prey which he refused in 2021 while the Treasury offered it to him with a 7 billion dowry.

Orcel has said that he will only make acquisitions that increase the profitability of Unicredit shareholders: and this in theory excludes Banco Bpm – which is scanning the air while trying to make the “Intesa Sanpaolo model” at home – and our local banking prey. Unicredit could instead find convenient acquisitions in Central Europe, or investments in some “product factory” such as Nexio Azimuth (which has just put half of its network of promoters up for sale for one billion, aiming for 60 billion in assets under management by 2029).

The other special observation is Bperthat the April 19th he also renews the board of directors. The strong shareholder Unipol, with 20% and a clear vision of growth in the sector thanks to the sale of policies on the networks of participating banks, has chosen to change leadership: the new leader will be Gianni Franco Papa, already on the board of directors but for a life in Unicredit . Ironically, before future counterattacks Pope will have to guard against the aims of Unicredit, which in January “browsed” the Bper and Sondrio dossiers. He is supported by the Modena and Carisbo Foundations, who are buying a 5% of Bper to strengthen control of Unipol and Fondazione Sardegna.

In the future of Papa, and of Bper, it is not easy for the Sienese card to exist: due to its size, but also because the right-wing government does not seem inclined to cede MPS to a pole that it believes still has some links with the Democratic Party. Easier than that Bper look at Sondrior, where Unipol also has a 20% in the former Popolare. But you can never say: the leader of the Bolognese Carlo Cimbri so far he has not asked for permission by rounding up listed banking packages.