Inflation in August it was 16.1 per cent in Poland. y / y – results from the so-called rapid respect GUS. We will know the exact figures on Thursday. This is a higher reading than the July growth rate sec it reached 15.6%, and at the same time is the highest since March 1997 (16.6%).
On 7 September, the Monetary Policy Council decided to raise the reference rate NBP by 25 basis points to the 6.75% level. This is the highest level from the beginning of 2002 to 2003. It was the eleventh consecutive increase in interest rates. The MPC initiated a cycle of rate hikes in October 2021, when the main NBP rate was only 0.10%, and now economists believe the cycle of rate hikes is likely coming to an end.
Inflation and interest rates. The expert points to the anti-inflation shield
Ludwik Kotecki, a member of the Monetary Policy Council, believes it would be “too early” to put an end to the interest rate hike. – Recent interest rate hikes have been too moderate and too late. It was necessary to act more decisively in the first half of 2022 – said the economist in “Business Studio”.
Ludwik Kotecki stressed that the suspension of the inflation shield (valid until 31 October, but the government wants to extend it until 31 December 2022) will significantly increase the inflation reading. “We do not know today what the decisions regarding the inflation shield will be next year,” he added. MPC member predicts what inflation we can expect in January 2023 if the inflation shield is not extended again.
– If the inflation shield is not extended, inflation will increase by at least 5 percentage points between December of this year and January 2023. Let’s assume it will be the same as in August, which is 16 percent. – that would mean that we will have in January 21 proc, he said.
