Experts are predicting a new turnout against the voting record for Sunday’s vote. The calculation is done by the mathematician Prof. Mihail Konstantinov and they show an expected drop of another 200,000 voters. For comparison, in 2021, when this series of parliamentary elections begins, 3.3 million people voted, or more than 50% of voters.
For the 6 elections there is a gradual decline this year when we reach 2.2 million people in the June 9 election or 34%. And the forecast for the vote on Sunday is to drop to 2 million So, for one representative to enter the 51st parliament, he will only need 7,000 votes.
It remains to be seen whether the bar will remain so low or whether voters will raise it with more active voting.
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The June vote hit the lowest level of voters, and this shock will not be the last, experts say. The main reason – the series of elections and did not create a stable government.
“Now, unfortunately, it is expected to drop to 2 million. If you remove invalid votes, “I do not support anyone” votes, it turns out that 1.8 million votes will give representatives”, Prof. Konstantinov calculates.
This low turnout provides an ever-increasing opportunity for the influence of the bought vote. Because the accounts show that only 80,000 votes are needed for a party to enter parliament, and 7,000 votes are needed for one parliamentary seat.
“The maximum number of votes bought is around 200,000, but with more people voting, I currently expect around 100,000 to fall. This is fine, according to the calculations we made, to get a smaller party into the parliament”, explained Prof. Konstantinov.
Ministry of the Interior with current data on special national action against the bought vote
However, political scientist Lyubomir Stefanov remains optimistic. He believes that more people will go to the polls in this election.
“Citizens are not rude, they just don’t see a reason to do it. Seeing that the level is falling and perhaps moving towards the pragmatization of the policy and the implementation as such, they can go and give a few thumbs”, said Lyubomir Stefanov. According to him , a reduction in tension levels can be seen in the election campaign, which he reports as unusually quiet.
“This one is much more relaxed, there is drama but it is marginal, there are no accidents, there is some protest but basically no direct attacks. It’s not that there aren’t prerequisites. But they seem to be hiding behind several scandals that appear to be internal party problems. The public – the most important is the SJC and the election of the chief prosecutor”, said Stefanov.
The expected result is again for a regular government.
“The drama is how you create threads to bring them together at one table,” Stefanov believes.
“If they have some sense, I advise the Bulgarian politicians to form a government, otherwise the people will just throw them out in an unpleasant way,” said Professor Konstantinov.
19 parties and 9 coalitions will fight for our vote on Sunday.
2024-10-21 16:14:00
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