Move El Nino! La Nina OTW RI, BMKG calls this Area Warning I

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) issued a warning to several regions in Indonesia regarding the possibility of drought and high water. BMKG also released the latest forecasts for La Nina’s entry record.

Based on the results of the BMKG study, the IOD and ENSO indices in July 2024, the Dipole Mode Index -0.46 (Neutral), and the ENSO index 0.115 (Neutral). IOD is expected to be neutral from August to January 2025.

“ENSO is expected to have the potential to move towards La Nina beginning in August 2024,” said the Basic Atmospheric Dynamics Analysis III July 2024 published by BMKG, announced on Saturday (10/8/2024) .

On the other hand, it is reported that up to 51% of the seasonal zones (ZOM) in Indonesia are in the dry season.

Areas currently experiencing the dry season include parts of Aceh, parts of North Sumatra, parts of Riau, parts of Bengkulu, parts of Jambi, parts of South Sumatra, parts of Lampung, parts of Banten to NTT, parts of South Kalimantan, parts of East Kalimantan, parts of Central Sulawesi and South Sulawesi, parts of West Sulawesi, parts of Southeast Sulawesi, parts of Maluku, and parts of South Papua.

“Air mass flow in Dasarian III in July 2024 is dominated by easterly winds. Areas of a wind curve are visible on the equator. In Dasarian I August 2024 it is expected that winds from the east dominate the land of ​​Indiniania. Low pressure centers are seen in the equator. waters west of northern Sumatra,” wrote BMKG.

Impact of La Nina and East Wind on Indonesia

So what happens if Indonesia is hit by La Nina and East Wind?

Referring to the official BMKG website, ENSO is an anomaly in the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean on the west coast of Ecuador and Peru that is higher than the normal average.

It is reported that the climate in the Pacific Ocean is divided into 3 levels. That is, El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral.

In the Neutral phase, the trade winds blow from east to west over the Pacific Ocean producing ocean currents that also point west and are known as the Walker Circulation. Sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific are always warmer than in the eastern Pacific.

At the same time, during the El Nino phase, the trade winds that usually blow from east to west weaken or even reverse. This weakening is associated with widespread sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. Warm water moving east causes evaporation, clouds and rain to move away from Indonesia. This means that Indonesia is at greater risk of drought.

And, when a La Niña phase occurs, trade winds from the eastern Pacific to the west of the equator become stronger than usual. The stronger trade winds push sea water masses to the west, so that the sea surface temperature becomes cooler in the eastern Pacific. For Indonesia, this means a higher risk of floods, lower air temperatures during the day, and more tropical storms.

It is hoped that the entry of La Nina during the dry season in Indonesia will help reduce the impact of the 2024 dry season. Which will result in a dry rainy season in parts of Indonesia.

“ZOMs expected to enter the dry season in the Period I-III of August 2024 are parts of Bangka Belitung, a small part of West Kalimantan, part of Central Kalimantan, part of South Kalimantan, part of East Kalimantan, part of South Sulawesi, part of West Sulawesi, part of Southeast Sulawesi, “parts of Central Sulawesi, parts of Gorontalo, parts of North Sulawesi, parts of North Maluku and Maluku, parts of West Papua, parts of Papua,” said BMKG.

Meanwhile, easterly winds will promote dry conditions and cooler temperatures in Indonesia. Because the east wind or Australian Monsoon blows from the Southern Hemisphere which suffers from cold temperatures and high pressure towards the Northern Hemisphere which currently has a low pressure area , passing through Indonesia.

“Climatically, the easterly wind or Australian monsoon usually occurs in June-August, at the height of the dry season,” said a BMKG weather forecaster in a video broadcast on YouTube account BMKG Info.

BMKG early warning

In the latest analysis, BMKG also issued 2 early warnings. Results updated 31 July 2024, valid for Base I August 2024.

The following is an early warning issued by BMKG:

1. Early warning of high water

Warning

Several provinces/cities in North Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, Maluku, West Papua, Southwest Papua, Central Papua and Papua

stand by

Several districts/cities in Central Sulawesi, Southwest Papua and Central Papua

pay attention

Several districts/cities in Maluku

2. Early Warning of Meteorological Drought

Warning

Several districts/cities in the provinces of Central Java, East Java and West Nusa Tenggara (NTB)

stand by

Several areas in the provinces of Central Java, East Java, Bali, NTB and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT)

pay attention

Several areas in the Provinces of East Java, NTB and NTT.

(luck/luck)

RI: Heavy rain – severe weather, BMKG indicates when El Nino will end