People, not kits. If you really want to be prepared for the next big earthquake, forget about the seismic kit and go talk to your neighbors.
All Southern Californians know that there are earthquakes in this area and that we must be prepared for them. But we have very different opinions about what an earthquake means and what we should do about it.
If you’ve never experienced a strong earthquake, your fear may be related to the timing of the earthquake itself. That invisible threat, which could leave you trapped in a pile of debris in unpredictable ways, taps into our primal fears about these predators. This is why people continue to search for earthquake predictions even though good building codes do much more to save lives.
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Rescuers and emergency managers focus on the immediate aftermath. They have seen too many people asking for water after a disaster. In the Red Cross shelters they know the need for medications and the emotional well-being that comfort items provide; they want everyone to have a team to reduce this pain.
But for those who study disasters and their impacts, something to which I have dedicated my professional life as a researcher in seismology at the US Geological Survey and Caltech, and now with the Dr. Lucy Jones Center for Science and Society, a disaster is much bigger than immediate devastation or even those first few days or weeks.
The real impact is seen in how the community recovers from the disaster. Are you returning to prosperity? Or does the community fade when its people lose hope?
We have seen impacts that last for years or even decades. We have seen neighborhoods and towns that never recover and cities that really struggle. San Francisco before the 1906 earthquake was the only preponderant city on the West Coast, but it could be argued that it took the rise of Silicon Valley almost a century later to regain its position.
We also see impacts on people, lasting for longer periods. Not surprisingly, personal and small business bankruptcies are on the rise after disasters. Disaster insurance is an underutilized resource and few small companies can afford the large losses expected in a major cataclysm. But a recent study also found a 23% increase in suicides in counties where a major disaster was declared for three years after the event.
The path to recovery after a cataclysm is created by people. People who choose to stay in a damaged neighborhood, individuals who offer a place to stay for someone whose home is being repaired, those who choose to support their local businesses and make sure they can remain open and viable. Social scientists have been able to show that communities with a high level of social capital, where people are connected to each other, recover more quickly and completely after disasters.
Connecting with the people we live close to is no longer as obvious as it used to be. Since we can stay connected online with friends and family even when we move to a new city, we don’t have such a strong need for human connection that we are driven to foster new relationships with neighbors. Those distant friends can help us after a disaster, perhaps giving us a chance to leave the devastated community. The result is an individual less available to help that community recover.
In order for Southern California to remain a place we want to live in after the earthquake, we need other Southern California residents to choose to stay when our infrastructure is damaged and our economy is disrupted, and to choose to work together to rebuild. Communities recover because their members choose to commit to that recovery. That commitment comes from a sense of connection, and is best created before disaster.
How do we do that? There are as many ways as possible relationships, but here are some ideas to get you started:
. Host a block party or neighborhood happy hour. They can talk about who takes a long commute to work and may not be able to get home, or who has medical experience. It’s about developing resources to help and also about getting to know each other and strengthening your relationships.
. Create a private Facebook group of the building or block, where you can share your planning. This is also a great way to communicate after such an incident has occurred, as long as you can connect to the internet.
. Work with organizations where you already have relationships with other people. Maybe it’s a mosque or a church, a reading group or a community choir. Think about how you could help each other. Have you ever talked about disaster preparedness there? Have those conversations now.
. Then help that organization connect with other entities in the community. How many churches have another community of faith on the same block? What if they could help each other? Extra: get to know each other better.
. Think about your disaster supplies (those kits that I put aside at the beginning). Do you want them to be things to treasure or to share? The neighborhoods that plan together and help each other after the event will be those where there are no abandoned houses or property value declines two years after the earthquake.
When authorities encourage you to prepare for an earthquake, they often try to focus on individual actions, because, well, they are talking to individuals. Then we hear “Buy a kit!”, “Make a plan!”, “You need to protect your family!” Although not intentional, this can become a message of isolation, that you will be alone.
If you are left alone, believing that your neighbor can become your enemy, you will create a self-fulfilling prophecy and your neighbor will not help you.
So before you think about supplies, go talk to your neighbor. Make important connections that help each other after an earthquake and it will be part of keeping Southern California a place where we want to live. The relationships you establish and your sense of belonging will be the engine of our speedy recovery.
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