Moscow Exchange Index Surges by 1.82% on Tuesday – Analysis & Forecast for June 14

The Moscow Exchange index rose by 1.82% on Tuesday

The main benchmark of the Russian stock market on Tuesday, June 13, following the results of the main session, added 1.82% to 2757.28 points. Its dollar counterpart, the RTS index, fell 0.16% to 1,030.64 points. The dollar rose by 1.66 rubles. to 84.3 rubles, and the euro – by 1.97 rubles. up to 90.94 rubles. Yuan added 0.18 rubles. up to 11.74 rubles.
Among the growth leaders on Tuesday were Fix Price (+5.71%), Polymetal (+3.84%), MMK (+3.84%), NLMK (+3.63%) and Rusagro (+3 ,19%).
The outsiders on June 13 were the preferred shares of Transneft (-3.95%), as well as the papers of VK (-1.01%) and Rostelecom (-0.13%).
By Tuesday evening, the cost of August futures for Brent crude rose 3.15% to $74.1 per barrel, while July futures for WTI added 3.17% to $69.25 per barrel.
The growth of shares in the Russian market on June 13 was affected by pent-up demand from Friday before the long weekend and a noticeable weakening of the ruble, says Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at BCS World of Investments.
Wednesday’s key event is the Fed meeting, the results of which will be known on June 14 at 21.00 Moscow time. Also, the analyst advises to pay attention to the monthly report of the IEA, the weekly report of the EIA on stocks of oil and petroleum products in the US and the estimate of the growth rate of producer prices (PPI) in May. From the statistics of the euro area, he highlights the volume of industrial production in April.
Among the main reasons for the persistence of the devaluation impulse in the Russian currency, Bakhtin sees the lag in the dynamics of the inflow of foreign exchange earnings from the demand for foreign currency on the part of importers and the deterioration of the current account balance. This, together with increased budget spending and acute geopolitics, is pushing foreign exchange rates up, he notes.
According to BCS estimates, on June 14, the Moscow Exchange index will be formed in the region of 2700-2800 points. According to analysts’ forecasts, on Wednesday the ruble/dollar pair may move within 82-85.