Moldova is deciding on its future: In addition to the presidential elections, a referendum on EU accession is scheduled. Russia is therefore putting the country under massive pressure through hybrid warfare, says Brigitta Triebel, who heads the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s office in Chişinău.
ntv.de: On October 20th, Moldova will not only hold a presidential election, but also a referendum on whether the country’s accession to the EU should be enshrined in the constitution. President Maia Sandu is hoping to be re-elected in order to pave her country’s way into the EU. Does she have a good chance of winning the election?
Brigitta Triebel: Yes, she did. Her approval rating among the Moldovan population is around 35 percent in polls, although her election campaign is only just getting started. The Moldovan diaspora is also missing from the polls. They make up around 10 percent of the vote and tend to be pro-European and supportive of Sandu. The big question, however, is whether Sandu will have to go to a runoff. Then it could be a closer result, because parties from the pro-Russian camp could join forces against Sandu.
How will Russia try to manipulate the elections?
Russia is trying to influence the elections in various ways, including through disinformation and fake news about what Moldova’s accession to the EU would mean. But it is also about the war in Ukraine. Moldovans are being told: If you don’t want to be drawn into a war like the one in Ukraine, vote for the pro-Russian parties. This is playing on people’s fears. This is having an effect because many people in Moldova are afraid of a war on their own soil. Much of the disinformation is aimed at the Russian-speaking minorities in the country, who make up about 20 percent of the population. They get their information from Russian television and Telegram channels. Olaf Scholz’s visit to Chişinău last week was also used directly for fake news. Scholz mentioned a bilateral migration agreement in the press conference – and it has already been claimed that Moldova should take in tens of thousands of people who will then destabilize society.
Brigitta Triebel heads the office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Chişinău.
(Photo: private)
Is it true that pro-Russian parties in Moldova are buying votes?
Yes, Russia is simply buying voters in Moldova. In recent weeks and months, massive amounts of money have been brought into the country by middlemen from Russia. There is a real system: people with a Moldovan passport are flown abroad. There they take a few thousand euros with them to Moldova; for amounts up to 10,000 euros, this is legal. In a poor country like Moldova, you can buy votes with very little money. Moldova is currently being flooded with this money from Russia.
What strategy is Russia pursuing to bring about a negative result in the EU referendum?
It can be assumed that Russia wants to achieve demobilization with its hybrid warfare. Moldova’s accession to the EU will only be enshrined in the constitution if there is a voter turnout of at least 33 percent. Even if this hurdle is overcome and only 40 percent of Moldovans vote, Russian disinformation can exploit this by claiming that it was not the majority of Moldovans who decided there and that EU accession is a dictate of Western powers or of Maia Sandu herself. Russia is also exploiting tensions in society. The autonomous region of Gagauzia is an important lever. A large proportion of the people there are against EU accession and the region is led by the pro-Russian governor Evghenia Gutul. If the entire region votes against EU accession or a majority does not vote at all, this will also serve as a bogus argument for further attempts to destabilize Moldova.
The regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia maintain political and economic ties with Russia. There are still around 1,500 Russian soldiers stationed in Transnistria. Is Moldova’s path to the EU even possible with these two regions?
The conflict over Transnistria would have been resolved long ago if Russia had cleared the way for a fair negotiated solution and if Russia had not continued to violate Moldova’s territorial integrity with its own troops. An escalation of the situation between Gagauzia and the government in Chişinău is only realistic now that Russia is massively controlling this region with money and personnel. If Russian influence is minimized, Moldova has a chance of overcoming these conflicts. For its part, the EU has decoupled Moldova’s membership from a conflict resolution in Transnistria. This means that Russia’s greatest lever for exerting pressure is gone. This helps Moldova to concentrate on reforms in the justice system, economy and education. In the best case scenario, this will create a functioning state system that can better resolve the conflicts with Transnistria and Gagauzia.
How likely is it that Russian President Putin will initiate a military escalation in Moldova if Sandu wins and EU accession is included in the constitution?
If you mean that Russian forces will operate on Moldovan soil, I would consider that unlikely at the moment. The Russian military cannot reach Moldova because Ukraine and Romania lie between them. The 1,500 soldiers stationed in Transnistria can only operate if they have supplies and support. However, if the Ukrainian front in the south breaks and Odessa is taken, the Republic of Moldova will have to prepare for a Russian attack. However, Russia can use the possibilities of hybrid warfare at any time. In addition to voters, it can also buy demonstrators who cause unrest on the streets and create an atmosphere of instability and insecurity. This then causes great fear among the population, who are concerned about the war in Ukraine.
One of Sandu’s political opponents is the pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor. He fled into exile after being sentenced to 15 years in prison for mass fraud. From there he continues to pull the political strings and organizes his party “Victory.” What influence do Shor and his party have on the political landscape in Moldova?
Shor and his parties are not capable of a majority; their approval ratings are around 9 percent. Russia has given the party the role of radicalizing the political discourse and bringing tensions to the streets. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Shor organized demonstrations in the center of Chişinău against the government and president, officially against energy policy. In general, Russia currently lacks a party capable of a majority in Moldova. Traditionally, that party has been the Socialists under Igor Dodon, who can appeal to around 20 percent of voters. However, the Russia-oriented parties now lack candidates who have a realistic chance of winning the parliamentary or presidential elections. Since Shor has no chance in the national elections, he has gone to regions such as Gagauzia to win local elections there. Where he can seize power, there is no political cooperation, let alone meaningful political work. That is pure blockade, massively financed by Russian money. In the long term, Shor wants to return from exile and continue his criminal activities in the Republic of Moldova.
With Brigitta Triebel spoke to Lea Verstl
