/ world today news/ The downed Russian Su-24 aircraft over Syria, as strange as it sounds, can be related to the results of the third forum of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) in Tehran, held on November 23, giving serious food for thought. /rus. ez./
Including regarding what regions that are in one way or another connected to Russia and Iran, the main suppliers of natural gas on the world market, should prepare for. So that no one is “tormented” by the question of what the GECF and Syria have to do with it, let us simply recall: it was Turkey and Qatar that were the instigators of the construction of an export gas pipeline from the Persian Gulf to Syria in 2010-11, but, as is known, the Syrian president Bashar al-Assadpreferred the Iranian gas pipeline project through Iraq with access to the Syrian coast. And what happened next is known to the whole world – under the pretext of the “Arab Spring” and “democratization” Syria was subjected to unprecedented terrorist aggression, the war has not abated for almost 5 years, about 300 thousand dead, many millions of refugees.
Iran’s “Syrian project” was agreed upon with Russia because, if we are to believe Iranian media, citing Iranian intelligence data, envoys from Qatar and Saudi Arabia tried to influence the Russian leadership’s position on Syria right up until the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi and, by the way, even indirectly threatened terrorist attacks, imposing their “services” on Moscow to ensure the security of the Games. Arab blackmail was rejected at the time, and after the terrorist attack on a Russian passenger plane over Sinai, the Russian FSB finally declassified information that an attempt at a similar terrorist attack on a passenger plane had been prevented on the eve of the Sochi Games.
And so in Tehran the heads of Iran and Russia met face to face with the representative of Qatar, listened to his latest claims, and signed their long-agreed package of the most important agreements. And this time the blackmail of one of the most loyal puppets of the USA did not “work” — and Russia and Iran showed a not surprising unanimity. Including on the issues of attracting investments in their gas spheres and on pricing for gas supplies. According to Vladimir Putinnot only investors and producers, but also gas consumers will have to bear responsibility for the risks. And this means that the price of gas in a world in which “by 2035-40 global gas demand will increase by 32% – to almost 5 trillion cubic meters” will increase.
The third meeting of the GECF, which many often call the “gas OPEC” for good reason, although not all of its participants are in favor of creating a cartel, became an indicator of Russia and Iran’s readiness to dictate their terms on the gas market. And, as is well known, it was Qatar that, “on instructions” from the United States, thwarted joint initiatives by Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Algeria in this area in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Meanwhile, although this is not directly related to the GECF, on November 23, Iran gave the West another task: Iran’s oil minister Bijan Nemdar Zangane stated that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is currently producing more than the declared quota, and Iran is demanding a reduction in production in order to remain within the quota of 30 million barrels per day. At the same time, this does not mean that Iran is ready to give up on increasing production. “It is our right to return to the market,” the minister emphasized. He expressed doubts about the possibility of signing a new agreement on the production quota at the meeting of oil exporting countries on December 4. The upcoming OPEC meeting is planned to discuss the issue of Iranian oil entering the world market after the lifting of international sanctions against Tehran. Experts predict that Iran will begin supplying additional volumes of oil to the market as early as 2016. And already on November 24, Saudi Arabia hastened to respond that it is ready, they say, to participate in negotiations on this agenda – accordingly, an increase in oil prices in the world is also registered…
Apparently, many in the West regretfully noted that the “plan” of the US and Great Britain to “pressure” Russia to bargain for something (either from Tehran, or from both Tehran and Moscow) on the issue of “Assad’s fate” had failed once again. However, there was no need to wait for Putin or his Iranian counterpart to speak out. Hasana Rouhani at the Third GECF Meeting. It was enough to pay attention to the statements of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a meeting with the Russian leader – it is well known that Khamenei rarely receives any of the leaders of states. His statements that Iran has no illusions and does not trust the United States one iota, but trusts Russia, are quite eloquent. And now the S-300 PMU-2 air defense missile systems are heading to Iran, and the Iranian side is discussing with Putin the issue of an Iranian ground operation in Syria. And now Iran has approved the Russian idea of creating a joint bank, and Russia has expressed its readiness to lend to Tehran. After such news, the West gave an evil signal, and the Turks treacherously shot down a Russian Su-24.
Of course, the relations between the Russia-Iran tandem and the West in the Syrian theater of military operations will experience many more such episodes. Of no less interest is the question of what the post-Soviet countries should do. Note that one of those with whom Putin met in Tehran was the President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov. They talked about many things, including the use of airspace over the Caspian Sea as part of Russia’s operations in Syria. However, they also obviously talked about gas. In this regard, I recalled that on the eve of the visit of the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev to Georgia, the 1st Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Energy of this country Kahaber Kaladzecommenting on the start of negotiations on Russian gas supplies with Gazprom Corporation, noted that Azerbaijan does not have the ability to supply commercial gas to Georgia. The Georgian minister’s statement took place immediately after negotiations with the Armenian Energy Minister by Yervand Zakharyanduring which issues of electricity transit and the possibility of gas cooperation with Iran were discussed. “Today, the situation with Iran is completely different and our relations are at a high level,” Kaladze noted. “In the future, Georgia will be able to buy gas from Iran through Armenia and Azerbaijan. We have no other choice. This is a long-term project, we will discuss it.”
As for Azerbaijan, according to Kaladze, Georgia was not going to discuss a possible deal with Russia’s Gazprom during Aliyev’s visit. “Georgia had relations with Gazprom before, from which we bought gas for commercial facilities,” Kaladze noted. “We are buying now, and we may buy in the future.” In fact, the issue of gas supplies to Georgia is as relevant as it is politicized. The country’s government believes, not without reason, that Azerbaijan does not have sufficient gas resources to supply Georgia with “blue fuel,” and therefore logic dictates that Georgia needs to cooperate with the Russian Federation in order to obtain additional gas. The Georgian opposition, however, is shouting about the risk of falling into Russia’s energy vice, which, they say, will inevitably lead to an increase in Russian influence in Georgia.
And so a certain formula for gas supplies from Iran has been proposed. The same Iranian Minister Zanganeh does not rule out the possibility of providing Georgia with Iranian gas. It is curious that Kaladze was right, and during his visit to Georgia, Aliyev did not say a word about Georgia’s negotiations with Gazprom or about possible gas supplies from Iran. But at a meeting with his Georgian counterpart Georgy Margelashvili Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan has enough natural gas to supply itself, its neighbors, and all of Europe for a hundred years: “Azerbaijan has large gas reserves. Even in 100 years, it can supply gas not only to itself, but also to its neighbors and Europe.” Considering the activity with which Baku agitprop began to confirm Aliyev’s nonsense about “gas for Europe for 100 years,” one can understand that the ideas of Kaladze and Zangane, as well as the fact of Georgia’s negotiations with Gazprom, have worried not only the authorities of Azerbaijan, but also those circles in the West that for 20 years have been sponsoring not only the construction of pipelines in the Transcaucasus towards Turkey, but are also, in fact, trying to finally “take” the region away from the influence of Russia and Iran by laying a pipeline through the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan. It was not for nothing that on November 24, leading Western media outlets stated that it was possible that someday there would be “friction” between Moscow and Tehran, but now their relations are cemented by Syria. One way or another, there was a lot of “cement” in the relations between the Russian Federation and Iran even before Syria — the same Karabakh problem, in the framework of which Russia and Iran have always consistently advocated maintaining the ceasefire and continuing the negotiation process, or the status of the Caspian Sea, around which the Russia-Iran tandem in 2014 pushed through a comprehensive agreement between all Caspian countries on the exclusion of the presence of military personnel from extra-regional states in the Caspian waters. And the confidential agreements between Moscow and Tehran on gas are also evidence of the reliability of the “cement” in their relations, for example, after the agreements, Iran decided to build a gas pipeline to Armenia with a smaller cross-section of pipes than was originally assumed, and so on.
So what about Georgia? The former Georgian Prime Minister also speaks about the need to buy gas from Moscow and Tehran Bidzina Ivanishvili. First Deputy Prime Minister Kaladze is already setting deadlines more strictly – he expects that the agreement with Gazprom will be signed in December, and this is a step towards diversifying gas supplies, of course, at the expense of Russia and Iran. Leading Georgian experts, in particular, political scientist, head of the media holding Georgian Times Malhas Gulashvili. From this we can conclude that, firstly, Tbilisi sees the strategic conjuncture of the moment and does not want to ignore the alliance between Russia and Iran, remembering that these powers are the world leaders in natural gas reserves. Secondly, Georgia does not trust Aliyev’s triumphant reports about the vastness of Azerbaijan’s gas reserves. Incidentally, there was room for Armenia’s role in the reasoning of Georgian officials and politicians. For example, Deputy Prime Minister Kaladze commented on the construction of a gas pipeline through Iran and Armenia: “We are still waiting to see what kind of relations we will have with Iran in this direction, of course, if there is an opportunity, we will discuss this issue.” But there is a problem – the US Ambassador to Tbilisi Ian Kellywho, while seemingly approving of Georgia’s desire to diversify gas supplies, expressed the opinion that Washington is concerned that in this case Russia and Iran are the alternative suppliers. What other options, Mr. Kelly?
One way or another, the situation itself leads to Transcaucasia consciously drifting towards strong ties with Russia and Iran, rather than looking into the “Western distances”. And what and how exactly Russia and Iran will decide, say, with Turkmenistan and Armenia, in order to ensure a reliable fuel and energy pool in Transcaucasia and strictly control it – apparently, it is not worth predicting. Anything can come into play – and the improvement of Armenia’s pipeline capabilities with the extension of the pipeline to Georgia, and some swap supply schemes, and even the use of some part of the Iranian-Armenian agreements in the energy sector.
Sergey Shakaryants, political scientist (Yerevan)
Read more:
#Moscow #Tehran #work #tandem #Gas #trail #Turkeys #knife #Russia
