The epidemic that started in Wuhan in December has already infected more than 74,000 people and left more than 2,000 dead in mainland China, according to the latest report from the Chinese authorities.
Research that reveals valuable information for understanding the Covid-19 coronavirus epidemic. China Center for Disease Control and Prevention has led a large study covering 72,314 cases confirmed, suspect, clinically diagnosed or asymptomatic. Franceinfo summarizes its main conclusions.
A fatal disease in 2.3% of cases
Covid-19 coronavirus pneumonia is mild in 80.9% cases and fatal in only 2.3% of cases. Some 13.8% of cases are considered to be “Serious” and 4.7% are judged “Critical”. The epidemic that started in Wuhan in December has already infected more than 74,000 people and left more than 2,000 dead in mainland China, according to the latest report from the Chinese authorities.
Patients already suffering from cardiovascular diseases are the most threatened by a fatal outcome, ahead of diabetics or people suffering from chronic respiratory diseases or hypertension. Information that supports a previous Chinese study. The latter added that bad lifestyle habits, such as smoking, could also play a role.
Seniors most at risk
The study confirms information given since the start of the epidemic: age plays an important role in the face of the disease. And people over 80 have the highest death rate with 14.8%. Conversely, up to 39 years, it remains very low, at 0.2%, then gradually increases with age. Without the study providing any explanation on this subject, it reveals that children are spared for the moment by the epidemic. There have been no deaths among children under the age of 10, even if at least two babies have been infected in their mother’s womb.
Men more threatened than women
Early studies suggested that men were more affected. But in this study, it is observed that 51.4% of the confirmed cases are men and 48.6% of women. According to the study, men are on the other hand more threatened than women by a fatal outcome (2.8% against 1.7%). Thus, 63.8% of the 1,023 dead are men and 36.2% are women.
Wuhan City on the Front Line
Nearly 86% of those infected live in Wuhan or have gone to the city in central China where the virus first appeared. The megalopolis of 11 million inhabitants has been de facto in quarantine since January 23, as well as a large part of its province, Hubei, closing a total of 56 million inhabitants. The scientific department of Johns Hopkins University, in Baltimore (United States), has undertaken a work of inventory of the data confirming that the great majority of the cases is located in the province of Wuhan, as this map published at the end of January shows.
Highly exposed medical personnel
A total of 3,019 doctors and other people in the medical sector were contaminated, including 1,688 seriously. Five have already died on February 11. Among the serious cases, 64% worked in hospitals in Wuhan, like Doctor Li Wenliang, who had been reprimanded by the police in December for raising the alarm. His death from the coronavirus earlier this month created a rage in China.
Spread of virus slows
The Covid-19 is highly contagious. “The new coronavirus has spread very quickly in just 30 days from one city to the whole country”, underlines the study published in the Chinese Epidemiology Journal. The epidemic has reached “a first peak” between January 24 and 26, just when the authorities quarantined Wuhan. But one “downward trend” has been taking shape since February 11, with a slowdown in the number of new cases of contamination, particularly outside of Hubei.
Chinese authorities expanded definition of disease on February 13 to include cases “clinically diagnosed” by lung X-ray, not just a laboratory test. This change resulted in a sharp increase in the number of deaths and contaminations. The report suggests that the decision to cordon off Wuhan and its region has helped stem the tide of contagion.
Vigilance remains essential
The virus spread as hundreds of millions of Chinese people traveled from north to south of the country on the occasion of Lunar New Year, the biggest holiday on the calendar. This long leave has been extended to reduce the risk of generalized contagion. But as people return home by train, bus or plane, there is a risk of “possible rebound of the epidemic”. The virus can also “adapt over time to become more virulent”, warns the report, which calls on the medical profession to “to remain vigilant”.
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