Bourgogne-Franche-Comté is the third region in terms of growth in deaths between March 1 and April 20, 2020. Deaths increased by 35.6% in the Côte-d’Or and by 17.5% in the Saône-et-Loire compared to 2019.
Number of daily deaths by department
At the national level, the number of total deaths recorded on May 1, 2020 and occurring between March 1 and April 20, 2020 is higher than that recorded over the same periods in 2019 or 2018: 109,831 deaths were recorded in 2020 in France (an average of 2,154 deaths per day) compared to 86,606 in 2019 and 94,881 in 2018. Between March 1 and April 20, the number of deaths in France is thus 27% higher than that recorded at same time in 2019 and 16% in 2018.
The number of deaths, which averaged 1,780 per day during the first half of March 2020, increased significantly to 2,230 during the second half. It peaked on April 1 with 2,776 deaths recorded that day and has been decreasing since (2,620 deaths per day on average between April 1 and 10, 2,120 from April 11 to 20). Note, however, that the average number of deaths per day is often high in January or February, at the time of influenza episodes; in the past five years, it reached a maximum in January 2017 with an average of 2,200 deaths per day. In total, the number of deaths occurring between January 1 and April 20, 2020 rose to 218,242; it is higher than that recorded for the same period in 2019 (202,848) or in 2018 (206,858).
At the regional level, Île-de-France is the region which records the strongest growth in the number of total deaths between March 1 and April 20, 2020 compared to the same period of 2019 (+ 95%), followed by Grand Est (+ 60%) and the two regions of Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Hauts-de-France (+ 28% and + 24% respectively). In Mayotte, the number of deaths also increased by 27% compared to 2019. In all these regions, the number of deaths is also higher than that recorded over the same period in 2018. In three other regions, it is 15% higher around that recorded for the same period in 2019, and also higher than 2018: Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Center-Val de Loire and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. Regions, like departments, are the places in which the deaths occurred, not the places of residence of the deceased.
At the departmental level, six departments have at least twice as many deaths between March 1 and April 20, 2020 than over the same period of 2019. These are the Haut-Rhin (+ 135%) and five departments in Ile-de-France: Seine-Saint-Denis (+ 130%), Hauts-de-Seine (+ 122%), Val-de-Marne (+ 104%), Essonne and Val-d’Oise (+ 99% each). Nine other departments recorded an increase of at least 50% compared to 2019. These are all the other Ile-de-France departments but also Vosges, Moselle, Bas-Rhin, Doubs, Oise and the Aisne. Thirty-five departments in total have a death surplus of at least 20% compared to 2019.
Over the most recent period, the average number of daily deaths recorded between April 1 and 20 decreased in the Grand Est by 8% compared to that of the second half of March. The fall is still measured compared to the rise observed between the first and second half of March (+ 71%). This decline is marked for the departments of Haut-Rhin (- 34% after + 144%), Haute-Marne (- 14% after + 85%) but also Somme (- 17% after + 28%).
The average number of daily deaths continues to grow in Île-de-France in April even if the progression slows down in relative terms: 550 deaths per day are recorded between April 1 and 20 against 410 the second half of March, or + 35 % after + 90% between the first and second half of March.
In contrast, nineteen departments have fewer deaths recorded between March 1 and April 20, 2020 than over the same period of 2019. These departments are mainly located in the Southwest and Center of France as well as in most overseas departments.
In order to directly compare the deaths occurring in 2020 with the deaths occurring in 2019 and 2018, by neutralizing the changes in dematerialization rates, the deaths occurring up to April 24 are communicated on the – constant – field of the municipalities having opted for dematerialized transmission on April 1, 2020. Compared to figures released last week, the deaths recorded in these municipalities between March 1 and April 17 are revised upward by 1.3%.
The number of deaths that occurred in France in these municipalities between March 1 and April 13, 2020 amounted to 87,556 (or 93% of deaths transmitted electronically or by paper by all municipalities). It was 95,106 on April 17, compared to 74,584 between March 1 and April 17, 2019 and 81,660 in the same period in 2018. Whether on April 17 or April 13 , it is the same regions and the same departments which register the highest excess of deaths compared to 2019. These surpluses on April 17, compared to those observed on April 13, are most often more marked , but in smaller proportions compared to the previous week.
The speed of transmission of information on deaths in these municipalities (which currently represent 93% of total deaths) allows for earlier analyzes. 107,893 deaths were recorded between April 1 and 24, 27% more than in 2019 and 17% more than in 2018.
The number of deaths recorded in these municipalities, however, decreases during the week of April 18 to 24 compared to the previous week in France and in all regions of metropolitan France. According to these provisional figures, this reduction is – 20%. This confirms the reversal observed since April 1. This drop is close to that which was measured last week between April 11 and 17, which stood at – 17%, revised since then to – 13%.
In the field of dematerialized municipalities, deaths from Saturday April 11 to Friday April 17 are thus 17% lower than those of the previous week (from Saturday April 4 to Friday April 10), whereas the decrease over one week was previously 3%. This accentuation of the drop in the number of deaths is observed in particular in the Grand Est (- 23% after – 12%) and in Île-de-France (- 29% after stability) or in Bourgogne Franche-Comté (- 7% after – 1%) or Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (- 15% after – 1%). The Hauts-de-France region also recorded a decrease in deaths between the week of April 11 to 17 and the previous one (- 16%), while the number of deaths increased slightly from one week to the next, a week before (+ 5%).
In these municipalities which transmit information electronically, the drop in the number of deaths is marked in Île-de-France (- 32% after – 24% the previous week), in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (- 26% after – 7%), in the Grand Est (- 22% after – 19%) and in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (- 21% after – 8%).
Eighty-six departments recorded a decrease in deaths from Saturday April 18 to Friday April 24 compared to the previous week. Among them, twenty-one fell by at least 30% that week, including several departments very affected by Covid-19: Seine-Saint-Denis, Hauts-de-Seine, Val- de-Marne, Côte-d’Or, Essonne, Paris or the Haut-Rhin.
The increase in mortality observed between March 1 and April 20, 2020 compared to 2019 is 27%, with a slight difference between women (+ 26%) and men (+ 28%), for France excluding Bouches- du-Rhône. A greater increase in male mortality is observed in particular in the regions most affected by Covid-19, in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and in the Grand Est, less so in Île-de-France. However, it is not present in Hauts-de-France. Male mortality increases significantly more than female mortality (at least 20 points apart) in Haute-Marne, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Moselle, Corse du Sud, in Val-de-Marne but also in Ain, Deux-Sèvres and Eure-et-Loir. On the other hand, the difference is very slight in the Haut-Rhin. Conversely in the Bas-Rhin, it is women whose mortality increases the most, and this highest female mortality is very pronounced in the Meuse. In several departments little affected by Covid-19, mortality increases more for women than for men.
Before age 65, mortality is very close in 2019 and 2020 (7% more deaths observed over the period in 2020 compared to 2019) with, however, differentiated trends according to age groups and gender: mortality drops by 18% among those under 25, and more particularly among young men (- 24%), probably due to containment measures which can act on other causes of death, notably accidental; it is stable between 25 and 49 years and increases by 12% between 50 and 64 years (slightly more for women than for men).
Then, the increase in the number of deaths is all the stronger as the age increases: it is 22% between 65 and 74 years, 31% between 75 and 84 years and 33% beyond. For each of these age groups, the increase is significantly larger for men than for women. Over 65, the increase in mortality is 33% for men against 28% for women.
This increase in mortality, which is strongest in 2020 at older ages, is observed in particular in the regions most affected by the epidemic (Île-de-France, Grand Est, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Hauts-de-France) . However, as in other regions, the number of deaths of young people under 25 is also lower than that observed over the same period in 2019. In contrast, in the two most affected regions, Île-de- France and the Grand Est, we observe a higher number of deaths compared to 2019 even between 25 and 49 years: this surplus is + 27% in Île-de-France and + 11% in the Grand Est. However, it is much lower than the increase observed after age 75, which is around 112% in Île-de-France and 72% in the Grand Est.
Among the deaths recorded between March 1 and April 20, 2020 in France outside Bouches-du-Rhône, around 53,300 took place in a hospital or clinic (i.e. 50% of recorded deaths), 25,400 took place at home (24%), 16,400 in an establishment for the elderly (15%) and finally 11,500 in another place or in an undetermined place (11%). This distribution of deaths according to their place of occurrence is close to that observed in 2019 with slightly fewer deaths in hospital or clinic (50% compared to 53% in 2019) and a little more in retirement homes (15% compared to 13% in 2019).
Deaths in institutions for the elderly during this period increased very significantly between 2019 and 2020, much more than other deaths: + 56% from March 1 to April 20, 2020 compared to the same dates in 2019, against + 30% at home and + 20% in hospitals or clinics.
The number of deaths declared as having occurred in a retirement home, which was of the order of 210 per day the first half of March 2020, increased very sharply in the second half of March (to reach 325 deaths per day) as well as during the first 10 days of April (where it is at the high level of almost 490 deaths per day), to decrease to 390 deaths per day from April 10 to 20. In almost 8 out of 10 cases, these deaths concern people aged 85 and over and in almost two thirds of women. These proportions were close in 2019. However, the very sharp increase in retirement home mortality on these dates affected men (+ 71%) more than women (+ 49%), and those aged 65-74 (+ 74%) than those aged 75 and over (+ 56%).
An increase in mortality in institutions for the elderly appears more particularly in two regions: in Île-de-France with an increase in deaths occurring between March 1 and April 20, 2020 of + 249% (compared to 95% overall), i.e. a number of deaths multiplied by more than 3 compared to the same period in 2019 and in the Grand Est (+ 108% in institutions against + 60% overall). In Île-de-France, all departments are affected by this large increase in mortality in institutions for the elderly, notably Paris, Hauts-de-Seine, Seine-Saint-Denis where the number of deaths is multiplied by more than four compared to 2019. In the Grand Est, the Haut-Rhin department is particularly affected with 3.7 times more deaths than in 2019. We can finally cite the Bas-Rhin, the Doubs, the Aisne and the Meuse where the number of deaths in retirement homes more than doubled over the period.
Deaths that took place at home and occurred between March 1 and April 20 increased between 2019 and 2020 by + 30%. They involved as many women as men (51% versus 49%), in 20% of cases between the ages of 75 and 84 and in 50% of those aged 85 and over. It was for these older people (aged 85 and over) that the increase was greatest (+ 38% compared to + 30% on average). At home, the increase in mortality also affected women (+ 32%) more than men (+ 27%).
The increase in mortality at home during this period was a little faster than that of all deaths in the Île-de-France regions (+ 103% against + 95% on average), Pays de La Loire (+ 21% against + 11%), Brittany, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and even Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur.
But this was not the case in the Grand Est, nor the Hauts-de-France. In many departments of the Grand Est, the increase in the number of deaths at home is even less significant than the average increase (Meuse, Moselle, Haut-Rhin …).
In Île-de-France, the rise in home deaths is more marked than the departmental average in Paris and in the Hauts-de-Seine, but conversely less pronounced than the average in Val-d’Oise or the ‘Try.
Deaths that took place in hospital or clinic and occurred between March 1 and April 20 increased between 2019 and 2020 by + 20%. The increase is more marked for men (+ 24% against + 15% for women) and older people. People who died in hospital between March 1 and April 20, 2020 were men in 55% of cases (compared to 53% in 2019), aged 65 to 84 in 44% of cases (compared to 42% in 2019) and 85 years and over in 42% of cases (as in 2019).
The increase in the number of deaths occurring in hospitals or clinics is generally less than the average increase except in two regions: Corsica and Mayotte.
Communicated
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