Morgan Stanley cuts its projection for Indonesia’s economic growth in 2021

ILLUSTRATION. Morgan Stanley cuts its projection for Indonesia’s economic growth in 2021

Reporter: Bidara Pink | Editor: I knew Laoli

KONTAN.CO.ID – JAKARTA. Morgan Stanley revises its projection for Indonesia’s economic growth in 2021 to 4.5% year on year (yoy).

Whereas previously, Morgan Stanley estimated that domestic economic growth this year could reach 6.2% yoy.

“With an average consensus collected from Consensus Economics of 4.4% yoy,” Morgan Stanley said in a report received by Kontan.co.id, Monday (17/5).

Morgan Stanley then explained that Indonesia’s economic growth this year could not be separated from the achievement of economic growth per quarter.

In the first quarter of 2021, Indonesia’s economic growth is still recorded at negative 0.7% yoy. Then in the second quarter of 2021, Morgan Stanley predicts economic growth could soar to the 6.5% yoy range.

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Unfortunately, in the third quarter of 2021, the agency predicts economic growth will decline slightly to 6.3% yoy and in the fourth quarter of 2021 it will also slightly decline to 6.2% yoy.

Then, in 2022, Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to return to its pre-Covid-19 position or grow in the range of 5%, to be precise 5.4% yoy.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley also revised its projection for economic growth in ASEAN countries to 5.4% yoy. Previously, Morgan Stanley was optimistic that these Southeast Asian countries would grow in the range of 7.4%.

Even with Asian countries other than (exclude) Japan (AxJ), it is predicted that it will grow by 8.4% yoy, with the previous prediction of 8.9%.

And with this contribution, world economic growth in 2021 is expected to be in the range of 5.5% to 7.5% with a midpoint of 6.5% yoy.