Morgan Stanley analyst: U.S. stocks will still be volatile before the end of the year after the surge in November | Anue Juheng-U.S. Stock Radar

Mike Wilson, a well-known short seller of U.S. stocks on Wall Street, chief investment officer and U.S. stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, said that with the fluctuation of U.S. bond yields, U.S. stocks will be volatile at the end of the year after rising in November.

In his latest report, he pointed out that both yields and U.S. stocks are likely to be volatile in December before finding support from more constructive seasonal trends and the so-called “January effect” next month.

at presentS&P 500 IndexIn overbought territory, this technical level is often considered a precursor to a sell-off. despite this,S&P 500 IndexThe MACD momentum indicator is still positive. The slowdown in the economy and the decline in inflation have led to market bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates as soon as March next year.

Wilson said that while investors have digested several shifts in Fed policy over the past year, this time they have shown “the greatest support” because they expect it to occur against a backdrop of still healthy macroeconomic conditions. Wilson believes this scenario “would be the most positive outcome for U.S. stocks.”

Similar to the market consensus, other Wall Street forecasters are also optimistic about the prospects for U.S. stocks next year, with Bank of America, Deutsche Bank and Royal Canadian Capital Markets predicting thatS&P 500 Indexwill hit a record high.

Wilson maintains a roughly neutral view on next year’s full year. He predicts that the index will be around 4,500 points by the end of next year, about 2% lower than current levels.

It is worth mentioning that Wilson has repeatedly been short on U.S. stocks. At the beginning of the sharp rebound in U.S. stocks last month, he said that U.S. stocks looked more like a bear market rebound than the beginning of a sustained rise. Last year, Wilson attracted much attention for correctly predicting the sharp decline in U.S. stocks. However, his judgment on the big rebound in U.S. stocks in the first half of this year was inaccurate.

On the other hand, J.P. Morgan strategists are among the most pessimistic on Wall Street, predictingS&P 500 IndexIt will fall to 4,200 points by the end of next year. In a report on Monday, the research team led by Mislav Matejka said that economists and financial markets are predicting a soft landing for the economy and there will be no room for error next year. “Maybe people should be contrarian again,” Mislav Matejka said.