The shooting of a Russian troopship in the port of Berdyansk is a success for Ukraine, but should not be seen as a turning point in the war. That is what professor of War Studies Frans Osinga said in the NOS Radio 1 News† “It is a symbolic victory and a signal to Russia that supply lines are also not safe in ports.” According to Osinga, this makes Russia wonder whether supplying troops and equipment via the ports on the Sea of Azov is such a good idea.
The question is whether the Ukrainians can continue to resist so fiercely given the large amount of ammunition they are firing. “They are firing bizarre numbers of anti-tank weapons.” According to Osinga, Ukraine is therefore becoming increasingly dependent on Western arms supplies. “But the stocks in the West are not inexhaustible either, production cannot be increased so quickly.” According to Osinga, Russia also suffers from a lack of equipment. “And if there are no successes, Russia will feel the sanctions more and more. Then it will be embarrassing for Putin.”
The fact that NATO is sending 40,000 extra troops to eastern Europe is especially important because it concerns permanent deployment. “Spread over quite a few countries, 40,000 is fairly small beer, but more importantly, the troops do not rotate.” NATO’s defense strategy has really changed, says the professor. “And not just in terms of ground forces, it also means more anti-aircraft defenses, more missile defense, a lot more planes.” That does mean that NATO has to strengthen its infrastructure and that also costs a lot of money. “You don’t just want to be able to hit Russia on the head, but also say: the defense is in order, you can’t cross the border.”
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