“The longer it takes the PPF Group to start and possibly finalize new negotiations, the higher the price it will have to offer as part of the mandatory takeover bid,” says Cyrrus economist Tomáš Pfeiler. On June 22, Moneta’s shareholders rejected a key parameter of the merger with PPF’s banking division, after which a trio of major financial houses issued reports on Moneta’s shares, promising solid growth over the next twelve months, according to Bloomberg.
The British HSBC, for example, assumes a share price of CZK 95 in the annual outlook, similar to the financials from the Wood & Company group. This means an increase of almost ten crowns per share or almost twelve percent higher price than now.
Both financial houses also recommended the share for purchase. Similarly, the Polish PKO BP Securities, which even expects a share price of 97 crowns at Moneta at the one-year horizon. For current buyers, this would mean the promise of annual growth of 14 percent.
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The bank’s shares are already almost eight percent more expensive than at the time of the June general meeting of Moneta. The stock exchange value of the bank is now more than three billion crowns higher than at the date of the General Meeting.
“We do not yet know the changes in the shareholder structure, so that we can confirm that one of the big players is increasing the position, although this is probable,” says Jiří Tyleček, an analyst at XTB. Several large shareholders have recently stated that they want to increase their stake in the bank.
In recent weeks, for example, the Petrus activist fund, known in recent weeks as the loudest opponent of Moneta’s valuation in a transaction with PPF, has planned to increase its stake beyond the 10% mark. Some analysts explain the rise in the share price by concentrating ownership shares so that, on the contrary, the proposal passes in the future. In June, 61.69 percent of Moneta’s shareholders voted in favor of increasing the capital equivalent to 80 crowns per share, but three-quarters were needed for approval.
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According to financiers, PPF will have to come up with a higher offer, while time is working against it. “Decision-making processes in PPF slowed down after the death of Petr Kellner,” says a high-ranking Czech financier who did not want to be named. “The decision on a possible price increase, which would significantly increase the price of the whole event, will take longer,” recalls the financier.
Analysts have practically agreed on the so-called cooling of PPF’s offer. “In terms of capital and estimated synergies, there is room for the share repurchase offer to be increased to CZK 90 per share. Investors believe that such an increase will sooner or later occur, “says Finlord economist Boris Tomčiak.
At the same time, the market began to look at Moneta’s shares differently. After “getting out” of the 80-crown ceiling for shares set by PPF, the bank’s business itself began to be more perceived. “Recently, the rise in Moneta’s share prices has been partly offset by the pre-June period’s ‘non-growth’ period, when there was considerable uncertainty about its outcome,” said Trinity Bank economist Lukáš Kovanda.
The price of Moneta Bank shares is said to be rising. This year, after its rise since the bank’s general meeting, Moneta shares are the most powerful of the three banks traded on the Prague Stock Exchange.
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