Credit rating agency Moody’s raised its forecast for US economic growth for 2023, but lowered its estimate for China next year, saying that although the risk of a recession in the United States is low, the challenges China faces are escalating.
“We have raised our forecast for US economic growth to 1.9% in 2023 from 1.1% in our forecast for May, recognizing the underlying strong economic momentum,” the agency said in a report.
Moody’s still maintains AAA-grade rating for the United States after Fitch downgraded it last month. Moody’s also kept its 2024 US economic growth forecast at 1%, saying that high interest rates would act as a brake on growth. ..
“We believe it will be difficult for the Fed to achieve a sustained decline in inflation to its 2.0% target if current economic conditions persist,” Moody’s said.
On the other hand, the report said that China faces “significant growth challenges” stemming from weak business and consumer confidence amid economic and political uncertainty, persistent problems in the real estate sector and an aging working population.
Moody’s maintained its forecast for Chinese economic growth for this year at 5%, but lowered its forecast for 2024 to 4.0% from 4.5% previously.
Moody’s said in its report: “Data from China indicates that the economic recovery from the policy of eliminating the Corona virus for a long time remains weak, as the momentum to reopen its economy that we witnessed in March, April and May appears to be waning.”
2023-09-01 23:38:08
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