Monetary Policy Committee Raises Policy Rate to Support Economy and Boosts Commercial Bank Profits for 2023

The MPC raised the policy rate by 0.25% to 2.00% supporting the economy. and travel The broker assesses a positive effect on the profits of the commercial banking group. Ready to reveal the projection for the year 2023

Rising interest rates are not over yet, pushing the MPC to 2.25% at the end of the year.

Kasikornbank announces “Increasing interest” on deposits and loans, effective from June 6 onwards

After the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the policy rate by 0.25% to 2.00%, which was the sixth consecutive increase, with factors from the Thai economy tending to recover. supported by the tourism sector

Asia Plus Securities views that the MPC will continue to raise interest rates. due to core inflation Excluding fresh food and energy (Core CPI) in April 2023 is still at a high level of +1.7% and the MPC estimates that in 2023-24, core inflation will be +2.0%.

This indicates that this interest rate hike cycle will be 2.25% – 2.50%, which the MPC will hold the next meeting in August, September and November.

While the policy rate hike will have a positive effect on interest income (NII), the group of commercial banks will benefit. from having interest income accounted for 70% of the total income of the group

by Asia Plus Securities It is expected that the interest income of the Bank Group in the second quarter of 2023 will grow both quarterly (QoQ) and yearly (YoY) from the increase in M-Rate interest rates during April 23 and June. 66 and will continue to affect until the third quarter of 2023

“For this policy interest rate increase Expect to see a rate hike interest rate of the group to be in line with the next policy interest rate, combined with the increase of the M-Rate during April 2023, is assessed as a force to drive net interest income for the 2Q23 and 3Q23 continuous periods, especially large commercial banks. Group net profit 2Q – 3Q23 grew both QoQ and YoY”

The net profit of the commercial banking group Asia Plus Securities forecasts for 2023 as before, at 210 billion baht, growing 8% YoY, mainly from interest income. Because the 4th quarter of 2023 is a period where profits tend to weaken. From seasonal operating expenses (OPEX) and credit costs from clean up balance sheets through amortization or selling NPLs to prepare for NPLs. new next year because the debt restructuring measures will end at the end of 2023