Moldova – Russian coup plans: – Real threat

On Tuesday, Moldovan President Maia Sandu accused Russia of plotting to overthrow Moldova’s pro-EU government.

– Moldova is in a difficult political situation, at the same time as they are leaning west now. Moscow doesn’t want that, says Tom Røseth, head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, to Dagbladet TV.

Sandu claimed during Tuesday’s press conference that Russia’s plans involve sabotage and that soldiers dressed as civilians will carry out violent acts, attacks on government buildings and taking hostages.

The statements come less than a week after Moldova’s Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigned after serving for a year and a half.

She said she had governed the country in a continuous crisis, which included a state of emergency following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After the government resigned, Sandu appointed his defense and security adviser Dorin Recean as head of government.

– Real threat

Røseth believes it is entirely possible that the intelligence information presented by Sandu is real.

– In any case, the Moldovan president is handling it as a real threat. Foreign agents and actors were then to be paid or hired from Moscow and carry out destabilizing operations in Moldova, says Røseth.

However, Russia has rejected the accusations, claiming that Ukraine is behind the rumors in an attempt to draw Moldova into a confrontation with Russia.

– Such claims are completely unfounded and without root in reality, said the Russian Foreign Ministry in an announcement.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has applied for EU membership. The country was formerly part of the Soviet Union, and since its dissolution in 1991 has had a number of pro-Russian leaders. In recent years, however, the country has turned more towards the West.

Professor at the University of Oslo and Russia expert Geir Flikke tells Dagbladet that after Sandu became president, Moldova has been clear that they want to join the EU.

He goes on to say that such an attempt to allegedly destabilize the country has not previously been seen.

– There is no reason to believe that this is something the President of Moldova is making up. She has a solid background, wide recognition and is an important actor in the direction of the values ​​shared by democratic countries, he says to Dagbladet.

– Is there a possibility that Russia can manage to destabilize Moldova?

– Yes, it is. I would assume that when this is said officially, there is a real concern behind it, says Flikke.

– Shall break democracy

The statements from Sandu come a week after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj presented a document from Ukrainian intelligence that allegedly revealed a Russian plan to undermine Moldova.

– This document shows who, when and how Russia will break democracy in Moldova and take control of the country, Zelenskyj said.

Moldova borders Ukraine, and close to the border is the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria. The region belongs to Moldova, but functions as an independent state with a pro-Russian regime.

– Largest loss since the start of the invasion

Despite the fact that the majority of Transnistria’s 470,000 inhabitants speak Russian, the inhabitants identify themselves as ethnic Moldovans, Ukrainians or Russians, writes AP.

– Unsure

Researcher at OsloMet Jørn Holm-Hansen says that if Sandu’s statements are correct, a parallel can be drawn to Russia’s behavior towards Ukraine from 2014.

– Just like Ukraine was then, the population and the elite in Moldova are divided between a wing that wants close cooperation with the EU and one that wants close cooperation with Russia. It has been about 50/50, says Holm-Hansen to Dagbladet.

However, he points out that Russia has two different perceptions of Ukrainians and Moldovans.

– Moscow sees the Russians and the Ukrainians as two branches of the same people. The Moldavians are Latin and thus more distant. But there is no doubt that Russia wants to put an end to the current turn to the West at the top in Moldova. What they will do to make it happen is therefore more uncertain, says Holm-Hansen.

However, he does not believe that the Russians will manage to overthrow the Moldovan government. It is also related to Moldova’s population.

– The vast majority who are so-called pro-Russian in Moldova and Ukraine are there because of the economy and because they have become familiar with Russian culture. They have had no desire to be subject to Moscow, says Holm-Hansen.

– Can smell Russian weakness

Warning

In December, Moldova’s intelligence chief Alexandru Musteata warned of a high risk of a Russian offensive against Transnistria.

– The question is not if, but when Russia will launch a new offensive against the territory of Moldova, Musteata said, according to Reuters.

He then said that Russia aimed to establish a land corridor from Ukraine to Transinistra.

In April, Russian Major General Rustam Minnekajev said that control of southern Ukraine is on the way to Transnistria.

– Control over southern Ukraine is another way to Transnistria, where there is evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being suppressed, Minnekayev said, according to the Russian media Tass.

The claims that the Russian-speaking population is allegedly oppressed was also a stated reason why Russia invaded Ukraine.