Rumors of a network staged to destabilize the state, alleged coup plans and fears of an offensive against a breakaway region. Ukraine’s neighbor to the south, Moldova, has on several occasions stood up against alleged Russian attempts to interfere in the aftermath of the Ukraine war.
Several point to the country as Vladimir Putin’s next target.
But what is the likelihood that Moldova will meet the same fate as Ukraine? Here are some worrying similarities.
They are both former Soviet states
A first, decisive historical feature for Moldova and Ukraine is that both are former Soviet states.
According to an overview from Sky News Russian is the second most spoken language in Moldova, and before the war you could often watch Russian channels on TV.
In the case of Ukraine, about a third of the population speaks Russian, according to NPR . As Washington Post writes: “This is a clash between brothers rather than a clash between civilisations”.
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A crowd celebrates Ukraine’s independence in 1991. Photo: Anatoly Sapronenkov / AFP / NTB
– He has much greater ambitions than Ukraine. He actually wants to re-establish the former Soviet Union. That is what this is all about, said US President Joe Biden in March last year, according to Fox News.
If Putin’s goal is to recreate the Soviet Union, Moldova is singled out as a likely candidate by experts.
They both have pro-Russian areas
Moldovan authorities are concerned about the breakaway region of Transnistria.
According to the UN, Transnistria belongs to Moldova, but acts as an independent state. The region is very Russia-friendly.
BBC writes that the region broke away from Moldova in 1990, and since then it has received economic, military and political support from the great power in the east.
In addition, Sky News’ overview shows that figures from the Moldovan think tank Watchdog MD indicate that Russian President Putin is stronger than US President Biden in Moldova.
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In Ukraine, it is the Donbas region, with the counties of Donetsk and Luhansk, in the east of the country, which has been the center of the conflict.
The area bordering Russia has a large Russian-speaking population, and in 2014 pro-Russian separatists declared a “People’s Republic”.
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Donbas region highlighted. Foto: Shutterstock / NTB
It was in the same period that Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula which, according to researcher Eleanor Knott at the London School of Economicswas defended with the claim that the population of the peninsula was more “Russian” than “Ukrainian”.
Last summer, ABC News wrote about a high-ranking Russian officer who spoke to Insider that Russia wants to occupy all of southern Ukraine, which would connect Russian-controlled territory to Transnistria, and in December Moldova’s intelligence chief warned of an imminent Russian offensive against Transnistria.
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They both face the west…
Like Ukraine, Moldova has also increasingly pursued a pro-Western policy.
According to Sky News, the president of Moldova, Maia Sandu, wants Moldovan membership in the EU. In addition, the country has moved closer to NATO since the invasion of the neighboring country.
President Maia Sandu wants more cooperation with Europe. Photo: Vladislav Culiomza / Reuters / NTB
Last week, the country cut back on the number of diplomats the Russians can have in the country, following accusations of espionage from the Russian embassy in the capital Chisinau.
If parallels are drawn to Ukraine, several experts in international relations have argued that it was precisely Ukraine’s increased contact with Europe that triggered the Russian invasion.
Prior to the 2014 invasion of Crimea, Ukraine had a pro-Western prime minister, and in the run-up to the 2022 invasion, strengthened Ukraine further contacts and cooperates with the EU and NATO.
Sky News writes that it is precisely Moldova’s contact with the EU and NATO that makes Putin nervous.
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… But both have economic ties to Russia
Although the countries want increased liberation, they are nevertheless economically tied to Russia to varying degrees.
According to Sky News, Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe and completely dependent on Russian gas, which constitutes the country’s largest supply. In the past year, however, the country has had to cope with restrictive supply and higher prices from Russia.
Moldova has also traditionally exported a lot to Russia, as well as being a popular destination for economic migrants from Moldova, according to Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw.
Ukraine has increasingly freed itself economically from Russia over the past decade. Nevertheless, Russia was still the country’s third largest trading partner in 2019, according to a report compiled by Kari Liuhto, who is a professor at the Turku School of Economics in Finland.
Among other things, Russia and Ukraine also have an agreement that Russian gas can be transported in pipes through the latter. It has secured Ukraine an income of close to NOK 30 billion, but according to Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia SIPAit appears that Ukraine will refuse to renew the contract when it expires at the end of the year.
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They are both exposed to Russian interference
Moldovan analysts believe they have uncovered a Russian strategy similar to the one in Ukraine.
Sky News has spoken to Doina Drogomir, an analyst at the Moldovan think tank Watchdog MD.
She says they constantly see messages on Telegram and other websites that spread messages that the politicians in the country are “Nazis”, that the government has introduced a “dictatorship” and that the population is forgetting “traditional values”.
– These messages are very similar to what we saw and see in Ukraine, she says.
And the country is experiencing, according to Sky News, growing dissatisfaction with President Sandu. It has given a party with Russian connections wind in the sails, and has fueled protests against the authorities.
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The opposition party Sor has got people to form protests against the government. A party that has Russian support behind it. Photo: Daniel Mihailescu / AFP / NTB
According to the Moldovan authorities, it has gone so far that they believe they uncovered Russian coup plans in February, writes Sky News.
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– We feel the pressure
But the experts Sky News has spoken to still think an invasion is unlikely.
At least that’s how the situation in Ukraine is now, and Russia has to cross Ukraine to reach Moldova. Nevertheless, they warn against the work Russia is doing outside the battlefield to destabilize the country.
As analyst Andrej Curararuj, Drogomir’s colleague in Watchdog MD, tells Sky News:
– We are not under siege like the Ukrainians are, but we feel pressure even from here.
2023-08-07 03:59:44
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