Last September 24th China tested, for the first time since 1980, a intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the Pacific Ocean. The Ministry of Defense in Beijing, without adding too many details, explained that the carrier had fallen “in the expected sea area”, that the test launch was routine and that it was part of annual training activities. Weeks later, many of them still remain gray areas on the teston the type of missile launched (this aspect would later be clarified, at least in part), on the objectives, on the site of the launch itself. Doubts and unknowns that a long analysis of Federation of American Scientists he tried to clarify as best he could.
What we know about the Beijing test
First, China launched its ICBM from the island of Hainanan unusual position for this type of missile. Furthermore, the return vehicle impacted the South Pacificat an estimated distance of 11,700 kilometers. As mentioned, it was the first time Beijing “targeted” the Pacific in a test since 1980, when it tested a DF-5 at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center that year.
The first image of the operation, published by news agencies on September 25, showed an alleged missile DF-31AGa modernized version of China’s first road-based solid-fuel ICBM, the DF-31, which debuted in 2006. Since 2007, China has integrated and now completely replaced initial versions of the DF-31 with the DF- 31A long range.
The DF-31A launcher had limited maneuverability, so in 2017, China demonstrated the improved DF-31AG launcher for the first time. The DF-31AG uses a cold launch method. It means that the missile is ejected from the container using compressed gas o steam before the first stage engine fires. It also means it’s harder geolocate the launch site because it is unlikely that there will be burn marks, the same ones that would normally remain visible on the ground after the hot launch of a missile.
The Dragon Missile
The closest deployment of DF-31AG missiles is located at 632nd Brigade the location of Shaoyang in mainland China, about 800 kilometers away from Hainan. There is no confirmation that the missile came from this particular brigade, but the distance provides some perspective on the process and amount of time needed to bring a DF-31AG to the island. To transport it here it may have been placed on a rail car and stationed at a port such as the Yuehai Railway’s Beigang Pier, before being loaded onto a ship and transferred to Haikou Port. From there, the missile was likely guided, along with accompanying support vehicles, to a sheltered and protected area near the launch site finale.
According to numerous analysts, the general area where the launch is likely to have occurred is Wenchang. It should be a new military training area that could also be used in the future for further tests or tests of various kinds. But why did China choose to launch an ICBM from Hainan, in such a complicated place from a logistical point of view?
Having conducted the launch as part of a military exercise – and not a technology development program – it is safe to assume that Beijing intends to transmit military prowess and combat readiness to its rivals.
As if that weren’t enough, conducting such a test over the ocean also likely reflects China’s ambition to consolidate its international status as a major nuclear power. Moreover, the United States also regularly tests its intercontinental ballistic missiles in the open sea.
