The Minister of Finance, José Antonio Ocampohe has already passed his second year of license from the Columbia University (USA), where he is a professor, to continue leading the portfolio in the country. In this process, Ocampo has been working to mitigate the rise in prices, the greatest evil that afflicts Colombia in economic terms.
In an interview with Portafolio, Ocampo said that he expects inflation to break its upward trend this month and interest rates to relax for the second half of the year.
(Government met with Andi and the SAC to discuss inflation).
The minister also talked about expectations for the economy and said that, although the Government has a forecast of 1.3%, he is more optimistic, and highlighted the support of international organizations to Colombia.
You participated a few days ago in the spring meetings with the World Bank and the IMF, the president was also in the US, what does it mean for the country in terms of investments or credit lines?
They are two different processes. Actually, the only event to which I accompanied the President was the meeting with investors in New York. I spent the entire week before in Washington in meetings with the World Bank and the Monetary Fund, but around those meetings there were several forums with private investors and also with two risk rating agencies.
The news from the World Bank is extremely positive. All the entities of the group will support us. The Inter-American Development Reconstruction Bank (Birf), which provides us with public financing, is going to support us with resources like last year, but there is also a lot of interest from the International Finance Corporation, which is the one that finances private projects. And the Guarantee Mechanism, ‘Miga’ for its acronym in English, will also give us resources and support for regional projects.
(In microcredit there will be a new usury rate).
And what were the conclusions with the IMF?
In the case of the International Monetary Fund there were very positive meetings. Article IV, which is the annual meeting to which the countries are subject in accordance with the Fund’s rules, was very positive, and this week is the annual evaluation of our flexible credit line and we meet all the requirements to continue using that IMF line of credit.
And outside of that, I had the opportunity to meet with the managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, in private meetings, and also with the US Secretary of the Treasury, with whom we discussed US support for international organizations. All relationships have been very positive.
How did it go with the meetings with the rating agencies? How are you seeing Colombia?
They were part of various meetings that we have regularly. We met with Moody’s in Washington, which is the one that maintains our investment grade, and also with Standard & Poor’s. I found the meetings positive and here we are going to meet with Fitch, although I have already met with them twice.
(Food allowance for parents: how you can request it).
That’s not an overnight thing. The rating agencies that do not give us investment grade will wait for this year’s results.
In how long do you think Colombia could recover the investment grade?
It is something impossible to know. The first step is for them to move us to a positive perspective, and I hope that with this year’s results that will happen.
You said last month that inflation had already peaked, but in March it rose again, to 13.34%. How do you see the figures for April?
(Vice President Márquez’s flights amount to $2.8 billion).
Actually, in March it was the same level, that is, we have spent three months with figures around 13%. But within that 13% there are several positive news. Food inflation has already been falling for three consecutive months, and this has favored poor households, so that inflation of lower-income households. That is a very positive thing.
And other positive news is that the Producer Price Index, which last month had its first single-digit inflation in several months, was just over 7%. In addition to this, the exchange rate has also had a positive trend recently, so I am absolutely sure that this month we are going down with inflation.
The Government announced an agreement with businessmen to reduce inflation, how is that going?
We are advancing in the first meetings these days. The first one was coordinated by the Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism.
(The conclusions of the meeting between Petro and Venezuelan opponents).
With this forecast that inflation will moderate, do you think that the rate hike cycle is about to end?
The expectation of lower rates is already clearly in the market. In fact, the latest survey of Fedesarrollo analysts speaks of the expectation that the Bank’s rate will be 9% by the end of the year. We will see in practice how much materializes. Initially I do not see a reversal in rates, but I think that from the second semester a reduction can be expected.
In the meantime, it has been possible to work on some rate reductions with commercial banks, which have already made several reductions, obviously in dialogue with the Government. So for small debtors there is already a significant rate reduction, and there is the entire line of special credits that we are taking out from the Government through the Bicentennial group, which already includes the entire microcredit program, credit inclusion, but we are also going to create a line for San Andrés, for the tourism sector of small towns, the Ministry of Agriculture has already announced a special line for small farmers, there are several issues that we are working on.
We are seeing to what extent programs can be made to lower interest rates.
With this panorama of prices and rates, what are the expectations for the country’s growth this year?
The Government at this moment has a projection of 1.3% for GDP in 2023. I belong to the optimists, and I believe that we are going to grow between 2% and 2.5% this year.
The budget addition project is already in its transit through Congress, what is it about? Are issues such as tolls or housing subsidies that have been discussed these days covered with those resources?
We are going to cover the subsidy that there is through an increase in tolls with the national budget and there will also be a strong edition for Mi Casa Ya, which is a program that requires much more resources, and we are seeing that other programs specific we support. But I must say that the sector that has the greatest increase in resources this year, by a wide margin, is the rural sector.
(Colombia ‘cracks’ as a negotiating environment, according to a study).
You have mentioned that the license granted to you at Columbia University is going to be extended, how long will you be able to continue at the Minhacienda?
I have already passed my second year.
LAURA LUCIA BECERRA ELEJALDE
Portfolio Journalist
2023-04-24 04:25:49
#absolutely #month #inflation
