February 24, 2023 marks one year since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “Delphi” asked both Ukrainian and Russian opposition experts to look back on the past year and evaluate the military, economic, domestic and foreign policy aspects of each side. All the Russian experts mentioned in the article have left the country in 2022 or earlier.
What’s happening on the front: Russia is at a standstill, Ukraine continues to arm
Historian, master of Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń Sofija Shirogova:
As Putin’s original plan failed, many thought last year that a blitzkrieg was imminent and Ukraine would win. The war is in a protracted phase, and no strategic way out of it is in sight. For now, the two sides involved in the war are relatively similar in strength, but it is a strategic stalemate, the situation is hopeless. Western allies do not supply enough military equipment and equipment to Ukraine, but Russia has been able to increase its troops by announcing mobilization. It is true, however, that the capabilities of the newly recruited additional forces are insufficient for Russia to organize a massive attack.
Currently, neither side has a decisive advantage in the war. The war may drag on if its basic course is not changed, so Ukraine needs large supplies of military equipment to be able to counter strike.
Military analyst, Israeli army officer Igal Levin:
In this year of full-scale war, we clearly saw that the Kremlin’s plans have failed. Both the rapid subjugation of Kyiv and the whole of Ukraine, and the military operation lasting several months to completely capture Donbass and the holding of other occupied territories, as well as the occupation of Kharkiv and the holding of Kherson – nothing has been implemented. Strategically, Russia has been dogged by failure after failure. Taking the small town of Soledar is a tactical move.
Strategically, Russia is in a very sad situation. According to the Oryx website, Russia has lost more than nine thousand pieces of equipment. Real losses exceed 10-11 thousand. You don’t have to be a skilled analyst or financier to understand that Russia cannot recover from such losses within a year. Western countries and half of the world’s economy do not stand behind Russia. Only Iran and North Korea are on Russia’s side.
The longer this war lasts, the worse off Russia will be. Russia cannot buy equipment to supply its troops, but without modern equipment and equipment, war is impossible.
Allied countries continue to send modern equipment to Ukraine, which potentially brings Ukraine closer to victory. Yes, it is happening slowly, I would like the tanks to arrive in Ukraine faster than promised. However, the technique is getting there. We do not see anything like this on the Russian side and we will not see it, because Russia has nowhere to take such equipment.
