We estimate Russia. This is what military historian Christ Klep says in BNR De Wereld. If Ukraine loses the war, it will be because the West made that political decision, he believes. “At the moment there is no reason to believe that the Russian army has become much better and stronger. In contrast.’
Klep admits that things ‘are not going very well with Ukraine’. But he wants to clear up several situations he heard recently. “Not only is there talk of a quick total defeat of Ukraine, but also that the war would extend to Poland. And that a Third War is going on.’
Listen to the entire episode of BNR De Weredd here
For example, Admiral Rob Bauer of NATO compares the current situation with the days of May in 1940. “That parallel is not valid,” says Klep. According to him, it was not Russia can suddenly take over a large part of Western Europe.
‘It’s going to be a clownish show in Washington’
Retired British General Richard Barrons warned last week that Ukraine will not do it, because the country itself feels it cannot win. Klep thinks this is surprising, because the British head of the armed forces is doing another analysis. The West would be very strong economically and militarily. Russia would not stand a chance if even a fraction of Western wealth and weapons went to Ukraine.
In addition, Klep points out how Ukraine was able to sink part of Russia’s formidable fleet with relatively simple technology. ‘What could NATO do?’ According to him, there is no reason to believe that the Russians will follow this.
Doom thinks
Klep has two explanations for the doom-mongering by analysts and pundits. First, that the Russians are getting small tactical victories on the battlefield. And secondly, the political struggle in the United States and Europe to provide support. The Republicans have already voted down several Ukrainian aid packages, because they believe that the US itself needs the money. “It’s becoming a clownish show in Washington,” Klep concludes.
Also read | NATO asks countries to give more to Ukraine, but ‘gets little follow-through’
The EU has made several promises to Ukraine in the area of support, for example in the area of military and weapon systems. But it seems that these are not always delivered, or delivered with a delay, Klep believes. ‘That can add to that feeling that things are not going so well.’
Air defense systems are extremely important for Ukraine, says Klep. The Iranian attack on Israel last weekend has shown this, he believes. A little extra effort from the West should be enough, the military historian said. “A dozen or so Patriots could cover a large part of the country. It is a political choice.’
2024-04-19 18:00:08
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