Which of the Republicans or Democrats will end up winning on November 8? Will Joe Biden and his camp be able to defy the odds or is a Republican red wave about to overwhelm the United States?
In addition to these questions relating to the mid-term elections, other issues arise. Because the intermediate exams are also an opportunity for some candidates to see a little further …
«There are personalities that emerge, it is often a function of the midterm to be the test path for the primary to follow, confirms Françoise Coste, historian specialized in the United States. The midterms are in November and the first primary nominations for 2024 will undoubtedly be announced in January 2023. On the Republican side, all eyes are on Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who is already well-mediated. He was already on the list of possible suitors, like Marco Rubio, a Florida senator.
Speaking of the Democrats, Françoise Coste explains: “The situation is a little more complicated for them! The question is whether or not Joe Biden will be a candidate for re-election and whether there will be a primary among the Democrats. And they are rather trying to save the furniture right now rather than bringing out new shoots. “
And like presidential elections, some states are particularly scrutinized by observers: these are the famous key states, likely to tip the scales in favor of Republicans or Democrats.
“All eyes are on Pennsylvania and Georgia,” says Françoise Coste. Pennsylvania in particular, because it is a seat of the Senate that has been open since the outgoing senator retired and the elections are played between two very mediatic candidates: John Fetterman for the Democrats and Mehmet Oz for the Republicans (…) “
As proof that the institutional crisis is never far on the other side of the Atlantic, these mid-term elections could very well repeat the sad score of January 2021 when Donald Trump refused to acknowledge his defeat, plunging the country into chaos. Without precedents. “What we are seeing appear on a larger scale than what we have seen after the 2020 presidential elections, in particular with the unrest in the Capitol (…) This time we fear an institutional crisis at the local level with Republican candidates who, potentially, would not accept a possible defeat. “
