Full-scale war in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran is now likely, most Western Europeans who responded to a poll believe. At the same time, a large percentage of them criticize Israel’s behavior so far and say that if such a war were to happen, the US and Europe should not provide Israel with military aid.
The attack by Hamas is unjustified
The YouGov Eurotrack poll of France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Denmark and the UK published by the Guardian found strong majorities in all seven countries, ranging from 65% in France to 82% in Spain, they believe that the attacks by Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023 were not justified.
Israel’s attacks on Gaza are also unjustified
However, the most widely held view in every country – from a low of 43% in Germany, 46% in France, 47% in the UK, 57% in Italy to a high of 65% in Spain – was that neither Israel’s subsequent attacks on Gaza was justified.
The differences from the most pro-Palestinian states
Similar though slightly larger majorities – from 47% in Denmark to 49% in Germany, 50% in France and the UK and 68% in Spain, consistently one of the EU’s most pro-Palestinian member states – said his attacks Israel in Lebanon were not justified.
Israel’s attacks on Iran were also seen as unjustified in all seven countries, from 45% (Denmark) to 68% (Spain), while Iran’s attacks on Israel were condemned by 58% (France) to 71% (Spain) ).
Support for Israel is divided
The EU has been divided over the Gaza conflict, with countries such as Spain and Ireland formally recognizing a Palestinian state but others, including Germany, saying that supporting Israel’s security is central to its foreign policy.
“Israel went too far with civilians”
Asked about Israel’s attacks on Gaza, which Palestinian health authorities say have killed more than 43,000 people, the most popular view was that Israel was “right to send troops into Gaza, but it overdid it and killed too many many civilians”.
This view was supported by somewhat smaller majorities between 25% (Italy) and 39% (Sweden). An even smaller percentage (between 16% and 26%) of Europeans believe that Israel was wrong to use military force against Hamas.
No more support for Israel
When Europeans were asked whether Europe and the US should do more to help Israel achieve its military goals or to deter Benjamin Netanyahu’s government from taking military action, most from 22% (France) to 36% (Spain) chose the second.
Sizable minorities of between 21% (France and the UK) and 25% (Italy), meanwhile, said they thought Europe and the US “shouldn’t get involved at all”.
A generalized conflict in the Middle East is very likely
Majorities ranging from 52% in Denmark to 58% in France, 59% in Germany and Italy, and 61% in the United Kingdom and 65% in Spain said they believe an all-out war in the region involving Israel and Iran is either “very” or “fairly” likely.
“”No” military aid to Israel in any generalization of the conflict”
If such a war were to break out, the most widespread view in all seven countries – from 42% in Denmark to 47% in Britain, 51% in Germany and 59% in Italy – was that Europe and the US should not provide military aid in Israel.
When asked to give their overall opinion on Palestine and Israel their opinions were quite varied. Only in Italy were opinions on Palestine barely close, with 33% negative and 30% positive.
Unfavorable view of Israel and Palestine
Elsewhere, 61% of Germans said they had an unfavorable view of Palestine, compared to 15% who were positive, while the corresponding figures in Sweden were 57% and 20%, and in France, 42% unfavorable compared to 25% positive.
Opinions of Israel were equally poor, with net scores ranging from minus 15 in France to minus 24 in Germany, minus 30 in Sweden and minus 33 in Spain
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