“Let’s not overestimate the role of the American presidential election”
Can the United States end the war in the Middle East? For Bertrand Badie, not at the moment. The specialist points out the absence of concrete results from the visits to the region by the American Minister of Foreign Affairs, Antony Blinken: “The Secretary of State has visited the Middle East 11 times in one year, for the moment the results are 0”. He observes that “the United States realizes, for the first time in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, that it no longer has control at all.”
On the impact of the presidential election of November 5 on this conflict, the international relations specialist is categorical: “Let us not overestimate the role of the American presidential election […]thinking that the election of a new president will change the situation in the Middle East is exaggerated.” According to Bertrand Badie, the only way to change the situation would be for the United States to stop delivering weapons to Israel. However, “from the moment when the two candidates will continue [de livrer des armes à l’Etat hébreu]they will give free rein to the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.”
“Iran has a range of possible responses, of which missile attacks are only one element”
Following Israeli strikes which hit Tehran last Saturday, Iran announced an “appropriate response” to these bombings. The specialist in international relations believes that the term “appropriate” demonstrates “a desire to contain, not to go too far, even if some of these attacks are spectacular”. However, on how Iran might respond, he observes that “Iran has a range of possible responses of which missile attacks are only one.”
This desire to minimize the consequences of the attacks is, according to Bertrand Badie, linked to “connivance between extremely different and antagonistic actors so as not to enter into a logic of total war. In this ‘little club’ we find people as unexpected as Iran, the United States who have a nightmarish vision of what a total war could be over which they have no control, Hezbollah, who does not want to be uprooted from its institutional positions in Lebanon and especially all the countries of the Arab world which denounced the Israeli attack.
Last Sunday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi proposed a two-day truce in Gaza, in order to exchange the four Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. A proposal that Bertrand Badie describes as “great for the families of the four hostages concerned”, but nevertheless admits that this temporary ceasefire would not guarantee peace: “We must not forget that peace is not a truce is a profound solution.”
“History has shown that eliminating a terrorist or resistance leader has never changed the course of things”
Furthermore, the specialist in international relations believes that the deaths of Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah or Yahya Sinouar, leader of Hamas and architect of the October 7 attack, will not lead to a ceasefire in Middle East. He assures that “History has shown that eliminating a terrorist or resistance leader has never changed the course of things, except perhaps by reinforcing the dynamics of war.”