The situation in the Middle East escalates again, Brent crude oil breaks through 90 US dollars for the first time in half a year
Zhitong Finance 2024-04-05 20:54:53
Brent crude prices topped $90 a barrel for the first time since October as tensions in the Middle East threatened to escalate into a wider regional war.
There are reports that Israel is on high alert due to the growing threat of Iranian attacks, and crude oil prices are pricing in more geopolitical risks. Iran has promised retaliation for this week’s Israeli attack in Syria that killed a senior Iranian military personnel.
The United States issued its strongest public condemnation of Israel since the war with Hamas, with President Joe Biden demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and for Israel to do more to address the safety of Palestinian civilians and aid workers; earlier this week, Israel An airstrike killed seven rescue workers, which Prime Minister Netanyahu called a tragic mistake.
The White House said in a statement that during today’s call, Biden “made clear that U.S. policy toward Gaza will depend on our assessment of Israel’s immediate actions on these steps,” the first time the U.S. has hinted that it may resume operations. Assessment supports Israel’s war against Hamas.
Crude oil also found support from signs of tighter global supplies and strong U.S. fuel demand. The price of front-month WTI crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up 1.3% to US$86.59/barrel, and the front-month Brent crude oil for June delivery closed up 1.4% to US$90.65/barrel. These are the two prices. Benchmark crude oil prices rose for the fifth consecutive trading day and were the highest settlement price since October 20.
Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas futures fell as domestic inventories remain nearly 40% above the five-year average, with front-month natural gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange falling 3.6% to $1.774/million British pounds. thermal unit.
Matt Maley of Miller Tabak + Co. said: “If there is a direct conflict between Israel and Iran, this may limit the supply of oil from the Middle East. So far, this has not been an issue, but it may soon become an issue. .”
Citi analysts say rising oil prices have put Brent within reach of a $93-$95 range, although strength is likely at this level given the OPEC+ extension to the production-cut deal and the risk that Iranian supplies will be affected by the conflict in the Middle East. resistance, as this could lead to producers selling forward contracts and speculators taking profits.
However, Citigroup remains pessimistic about the outlook for oil prices in 2025, predicting that demand growth will slow to below 1 million barrels per day as the aviation fuel recovery loses momentum in the post-epidemic era and the popularity of electric vehicles becomes more apparent.
“We will continue to see the transition from a bull market to a bear market through the middle of this year,” Citi said.
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2024-04-05 12:54:53
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