The explosion that killed the head of the Hamas Politburo, Ismail Haniya, inside an official guesthouse in Tehran, could be a harbinger of tectonic developments in the Middle East. The place, time and manner of the attack are decisive elements for the next steps of the powerful, the less powerful and the weak actors of the crisis who, after 300 days of war in Gaza, are half a step away from a regional conflict on multiple fronts.
The White House reiterated its commitment to Israel’s security in the face of Iran’s vows to retaliate at an “appropriate time and place” while the leader of the Shiite group Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallahwho lost one of his deputy commanders in an Israeli bombardment in Beirut on Tuesday, hours before the attack in Tehran, warned Israelis that “now they laugh, but soon they will cry.”
They were handing out sweets
No analyst, let alone an ordinary citizen, has the slightest doubt that the long arm of Israel reached one of the – supposedly – best guarded parts of the Iranian capital and killed Haniya who a few hours earlier had attended the swearing-in ceremony of the new president of Iran , Massoud Pezeskian. Israel routinely avoids taking responsibility, the US denies any involvement.
But this matters little to the Israelis who, imitating the Palestinians, celebrated the death of their adversary by handing out sweets to passers-by in the town of Sderot, next to Gaza, where the carnage began with the Hamas raid on the morning of October 7.
Haniya’s mullah hosts are called upon to explain, inside and outside Iran, how it is possible for a distinguished guest and ally to be murdered in their “house”. If the attack was by missile, their air defenses are punctured. If a bomb that had been placed two months earlier in the guesthouse exploded (as the “New York Times” wrote), then there is no safety for the guests or for the leaders of the regime. Memories of the freak helicopter crash that killed the former president are fresh Ebrahim Raisi in May in Northern Iran.
In addition, the attack on Tehran pushes the new, reformist President Pezheskian into the arms of the hardliners, accelerating the nuclear program and down the path of confrontation with the West, even as he was oriented towards dealing with the economic crisis and loosening the tight control imposed by the regime in all aspects of social life. Weakness, the sign of weakness, even the pretense of weakness can be fatal for any of the Middle East regimes. Consequently, Tehran’s response is considered a matter of time.
On the other hand, the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, having achieved almost all of the main objectives of the Gaza offensive – except the release of the hostages – has won points at home and could end the war from a position of strength. But why would he do that, when there are three months left for the US presidential election that is likely to return his friend to the White House, Donald Trumpan ardent supporter of Israel?
Some analysts believe that the Israeli prime minister is trying to drag the US into a “settling of accounts” with Tehran. Would the US agree to militarily neutralize the Iranian regime and its offshoots in Lebanon and Yemen now, so that the ambitious plan for a new security architecture in the region with the cooperation of the US, Israel and Arab regimes can proceed? In this spirit was Netanyahu’s recent speech to the US Congress, with the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris conspicuously absent.
The crucial question
The Middle East got a respite from an all-out war on April 13 when Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for the April 1 bombing of the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus and the killing of the general who commanded it. the operations of the Revolutionary Guards abroad.
The Jewish state repelled the attack with the help of Western allies and Arab countries and, responding to their prompting, responded with a limited-scale missile attack on the Isfahan nuclear facilities on April 19.
The “retaliation” of both sides was not immediate. The Iranian ones, code-named “Promise Fulfillment”, took place after 12 days (with 72 hours’ notice to the US and others concerned), and the Israeli ones six days after the Iranian attack. Many spoke then of “well-planned choreography”, others of “Armageddon rehearsal”. The crucial question is how the leaderships of the two countries assessed their capabilities and what their movements will be in the coming hours and days.
Denouncing Israel for the assassination of Haniya, Qatar’s prime minister, Mohammed al Thani, said you don’t kill the negotiator sitting across the table unless you want to kill the negotiation. But on the chessboard of the Middle East, rules exist to be broken. It happens on all the power plays in the area, no matter how much the referees whistle and boo…
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