The situation in the Middle East has begun and is increasingly escalating, especially after Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon. A year has passed since the start of the armed conflict in the Gaza Strip and the Major Powers have proven unable to stop or significantly influence the fighting. The failure of the countries of the European Union, but also of the USA, reflects a turmoil in the world at the level of power, which looks set to last.
US-promoted negotiations between Hamas and Israel to end hostilities in Gaza are constantly on and off. Joe Biden’s administration tends to characterize them as a cross-section, but they fail. Accordingly, the current Western-led effort, with the US-French proposal for a cease-fire in Lebanon, to prevent an expanded war in the Middle East amounts to an effort to limit the destruction. However, she also got nowhere.
At the same time, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, as well as the assassination of the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, do not appear to be changing the situation for the better. Equally, as analysts note, the chances of a successful deal seem deeply uncertain. As Richard Haas, chairman emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, points out in the New York Times, “there is more potential in more hands in a world where ‘centrifugal forces’ are far stronger than central ones.”
According to Richard Haas, if the Great Powers were much stronger than the forces involved in the war, such as Hamas, Israel and Hezbollah, then they could limit the destruction.
The US position in the Middle East crisis
The USA for many years was the only country that could put pressure on both Israel and the Arab states.
Characteristic examples are the Camp David Agreement of 1978, which brought peace between Israel and Egypt, and the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan of 1994. At the same time, three decades ago and more, the then Israeli Prime Minister, Yitzhak Rabin and then president of the Palestine Liberation Organization, Yasser Arafat, capitulated in the name of peace at the White House.
Except that the hope of this capitulation gradually, but steadily, began to erode.
The world has changed a lot since then, and so have Israel’s enemies. The ability of the US to influence Iran, as well as its supporters, such as Hezbollah, is limited. The two states have been implacable enemies for many years. Washington has also designated Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations, putting them outside the reach of American diplomacy.
Of course, on the other hand, Reuters information states that Joe Biden has asked the Pentagon to evaluate and adjust the position of American forces in the Lebanon region, where the situation is escalating.
US aid to Israel
At the same time, the US stands by Israel through major military aid, such as the $15 billion package signed this year by US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
However, such an alliance based on strategic and internal political considerations, as well as the shared values of the two states, can be used as a means of exerting pressure. Although it is almost certain that Washington will never threaten to stop, let alone actually do, the transfer of arms.
So while Israel hammers Gaza, but Hamas also responds with mass slaughter, the US has issued mild reprimands. For example, Joe Biden has called the Israeli government’s actions simply “excessive.” While continuing American support for its embattled ally continues decisively as Palestinian casualties mount rapidly, even among the civilian population.
Can the new US President end support for Israel?
It is almost impossible that the election of any President will stand in the way of US support for Israel. This event, however, has caused several reactions inside America as well. It is recalled that there were several disturbances at major universities, with students opposing the war and calling for a ceasefire.
The movement also reached the streets and universities of Europe, where they stood on the side of Palestine.
“If US policy towards Israel ever changes, it will only happen behind the scenes,” Richard Haas underlined, despite the fact that Americans show a particular sensitivity to the Palestinian issue.
Why Russia and China are spectators to the bloodshed in the Middle East
The bloodshed in the Middle East continues, while at the same time expanding, from the Gaza Strip to Lebanon. The rest of the Great Powers remain mere observers of the situation.
China, one of the largest importers of Iranian oil, but also a supporter of any event that could weaken the US-led world order, is not interested in taking on the role of peacemaker.
Russia still does not seem willing to help in this impasse, especially until the US elections on November 5th. At the same time, it remains dependent on Iran for defense technology and drones during its war with Ukraine. Although she would be no less excited than China, in the event of an American decline.
On the other hand, Vladimir Putin expects the return of Donald Trump to the White House, as it has been seen from the past, the two men have been strong allies for each other.
The powerless regional powers
Of the remaining regional powers, none are strong enough or committed to the Palestinian issue to confront Israel.
Egypt is reeling from the massive influx of Palestinian refugees into its interior. While Saudi Arabia, although it seeks a Palestinian state, it would not risk the lives of its citizens for this purpose.
Qatar funds Hamas with hundreds of millions of dollars a year, which have been used to build underground tunnels, up to 250 meters deep, to hold hostages from Israel. This informal alliance, however, also hides the complicity of Benjamin Netanyahu, as he saw the Palestinian organization as an effective way to undermine the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, as well as any possibility of peace.
October 7 was a culmination for Arab and Israeli leaders to manipulate Palestinian efforts to create a self-governing state.
However, neither the annual UN General Assembly nor the Security Council, which is constrained by Russian vetoes on the war in Ukraine, but also American vetoes on the war in Israel, could bring about any solution.
How Nasrallah’s Assassination ‘Adds Fuel to the Fire’ for the Middle East
Hassan Nasrallah was a particularly important figure for Hezbollah. He was its leader for over three decades, but also the man who managed to turn it into one of the strongest non-state armed forces in the world. The void he leaves behind will be irreplaceable for its members, and will most likely take a long time to fill.
At the same time, his death is a significant blow for Iran, as it can lead to a destabilization of the Islamic Republic.
Gilles Keppel, a leading French expert on Middle East affairs, emphasized that “Nasrallah represented everything for Hezbollah, and Hezbollah was the vanguard of Iran.” He adds that “now the Islamic Republic has been weakened, perhaps fatally, and it is questionable who can give even one order to the Lebanese organization”.
How the war in the Middle East will end
Joe Biden told the UN General Assembly that the world has reached a “tipping point” between rising autocracy and troubled democracies. On the other hand, Antonio Guterres condemned the “collective punishment” towards the Palestinian people in response to the “heinous terrorist acts committed by Hamas almost a year ago”. His statement angered Israel.
The positions of the two men confirm the strategic vacuum of an à la carte world order, which is balanced between the collapse of Western dominance and the rise of its alternative methods. They also demonstrate that there is no effective means of forcing Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas to capitulate. While effective diplomacy would require the existence of influence on all three fronts.
In the absence of concerted action, in which a global consensus on a plan of action prevails, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar are not facing each other of any consequence. The endpoint of the Middle East’s disastrous course is unclear. The only thing certain is that he will leave behind a long list of human losses.
In any case, as Steven Heinz, president of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund charity, explains, “the institutions that guided international relations and brought about solutions to world problems in the middle of the 20th century are clearly no longer capable of dealing with the problems of the new millennium”. “They are inefficient, inefficient, anachronistic and in some cases, simply outdated,” he concluded.
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