The situation in the Middle East hangs by a thread and the fear of a generalized conflict is great. Israel’s ground attack on Lebanon targeting Hezbollah is yet another Netanyahu move on the chessboard.
The question, however, is how much the Lebanese organization will resist and whether Israel’s choice to move the attack to a new stage will be crowned with success. Casualties for both sides are high, but Israel says its goal is to return its citizens to their homes safely.
It hits the “tentacles” of Iran
Netanyahu has essentially opened a triple front. Aside from the one with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, he is reportedly determined to finish off Hezbollah, while sending clear messages to the Houthi side as well.
In fact, it is hitting Iran’s “tentacles” in its region, sending clear messages to Tehran as well. Of course, choosing to land a business in Lebanon involves a great deal of risk.
“Playing” on the field of trained Hezbollah members will not be an easy task and Israel will suffer losses. Already, the Lebanese organization is showing its rich arsenal by knowing well the territories it is called upon to defend.
Field goals and the challenge in Tehran
A senior Israeli official told axios that the ground operation is not aimed at capturing southern Lebanon, but at destroying Hezbollah outposts, tunnels, launch bases and other military infrastructure in villages near the border.
The official said the ground operation has started in a limited area in the eastern part of the border and will gradually continue in other parts. The idea is to create a “security perimeter” on the Lebanese side of the border, which only the Lebanese army or the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) will be able to enter.
“We have no intention of drowning in the Lebanese mud. We’ll be in and out at the end. This is a tactical operation that is limited in time and scope,” the official said.
Regardless of whether this move succeeds or fails, it is a given that it represents yet another challenge on Iran’s side. The most dramatic potential consequence of this ground invasion would be for Tehran to reverse course and step in directly to save the militia it has built up over decades.
The US attitude
Of course, we should not take the USA out of the equation. Before the start of the ground attack in Lebanon, Israel informed the White House, while the deputy leader of Hezbollah shot his arrows to the other side of the Atlantic.
- Biden’s change of stance: The White House and the Pentagon have realized that their influence over Israel’s decision-making regarding the war in Lebanon is limited. After telling the Israelis for weeks to avoid a ground invasion, in recent days the White House decided to focus on trying to minimize it as much as possible, the officials said.
- The fear that exists: The Biden administration, including senior officials, is not ruling out that Israel’s growing military pressure on Hezbollah could lead to a diplomatic solution that would not only include a cease-fire but weaken Hezbollah’s negative influence in Lebanon and the region. .
The Iran factor
The question that remains to be answered is what stance Iran will take. Right now it’s a given that his back is against the wall since whatever decision he makes will have consequences.
Whether it decides to engage and attack Israel, or stay out of the war zone, it will face the corresponding consequences. The triple front that Israel has opened with Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthi is a message to the side of Iran and it remains to be seen if there will be a reaction and what it will be.
But there’s another scenario that U.S. officials have been warning about for months: Pro-Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen could come to Hezbollah’s aid and either send their fighters into Lebanon or open another front. through Syria.
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