The wound that opened a year ago today with the Hamas invasion and massacre of southern Israel’s kibbutzim is festering and the flames of war are spreading across the Middle East as the government of the Jewish state bombards components of the “axis of resistance” in Gaza , Lebanon, Yemen while preparing to hit the “source of evil” in Tehran and haggling with the US on the size of the blow to the Tehran regime.
The sad anniversary was marked by a Hamas rocket attack that reached the outskirts of Tel Aviv and was intercepted over a neighborhood south of the international airport. The shrapnel that fell in Kfar Sabad injured two women and caused fires, but what is troubling is that after a year of war the Palestinians are able to launch highly symbolic strikes inside Israel from leveled Gaza. The unofficial explanation given by Israeli sources for the depth to which Hamas rockets have reached is that their air defenses are now geared for attacks from other directions, from Lebanon, from Iran, from Yemen.
Today’s low-impact surprise by Hamas comes exactly one year after the big surprise and heavy blow Israel received by slaughtering 1,200 people and taking hundreds hostage. For anyone who follows the developments in the Middle East, today’s attack was absolutely expected to occur, at any cost. Is it the underestimation of the opponent or the overconfidence of the Israelis that brought these results? Could it be that both elements combined with Hamas’ (and their other adversaries’) determination to kill and be killed?
The attitude of the Netanyahu government
“Drunken” by the military successes in Gaza and Lebanon, the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects all mediation initiatives, the advice of partners and friends. It is constantly sending reinforcements to the northern front to “eliminate” Hezbollah while insisting it does not aim to occupy southern Lebanon. But he extended the civilian exclusion zone by 30 km (a total of 60 km from the border) by raising the physical boundary from the Litani River to the Awali River. This means that the zone of land operations could include after Tire and Sidon (Beirut is still 30 km further north).
As he steps up military pressure on Lebanon, Netanyahu is in informal talks with Washington over the scope of Israel’s retaliation to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack. US President Joe Biden first “advised” Israel not to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, then recommended not to bomb oil facilities either, essentially leaving out the regime’s military bases. Without ruling out any possibility, Netanyahu delayed the attack by a few days and is now sending Defense Minister Yoav Gallad to the US for talks with his American counterpart.
The course of the negotiation
It is unknown what trade-offs the Israeli prime minister is asking for and where the negotiation will end – if it ends anywhere – although Netanyahu says his goal is a “new reality” in the Middle East. Besides, the announcement of Galland’s trip to the US could be ashes in the eyes of the Iranians and the Israeli attack could occur at any time.
The Israeli blow is discounted by analysts, as is Tehran’s retaliation. Does Netanyahu’s Israel overestimate its own strengths and again underestimate those of its opponents? However, it is clear that Netanyahu is discounting US support for many reasons, especially with the inconclusive presidential election less than a month away. The last thing that Joe Biden and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would want now is a full-scale war in the Middle East that would put fire – among other things – in the pockets of American voters. In the opposing camp, Donald Trump not only has no objection to bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities but is urging Israel to strike them before the Islamic regime acquires nuclear weapons. How “non-generalized” a war will be if the Israelis bomb “only Iranian military installations” remains to be seen.
To the 2 million Palestinians of Gaza and the 3 million of the occupied West Bank, to the almost 10 million of the Israeli population and to the 6 million of the Lebanese who live in the midst of war, to the people of Syria, Iraq and Yemen who have been living for years now in to the civil wars, have been added since last Tuesday night over 90 million Iranians who literally do not know what dawns on them.
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