The tension in the Middle East remains in the red and efforts to lower the tone are unstoppable. New reports bring to light the red line that Israel has set, but also the size of the response that Hezbollah is preparing.
The assassination of Fouad Shoukr by Israel is a given that it will not go unanswered. But the main question that cannot be answered is whether there will be a response only from Hezbollah or whether there will be a massive strike against Israel.
Iran, for its part, is looking for a way to respond to the assassination of Ismail Haniya without the way being given yet.
The scenario for a hit in Tel Aviv
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech on Tuesday that the organization would retaliate for the killing of Fouad Shukr by Israel in Beirut last week.
- Psychological warfare: He said Iran is also set to retaliate for Israel’s assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran. “The fact that Israel is waiting for the answer for a week is part of the punishment, because it is also a psychological war that affects morale”he said.
- The hit in Tel Aviv: Several hours before Nasrallah’s speech, the editor-in-chief of the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, Ibrahim al-Amin, published a front-page article saying that Hezbollah is likely to target Tel Aviv as part of its response.
- The unknown date: Israeli and US officials say they believe Hezbollah and Iran are set to launch attacks against Israel in the coming days, but they do not yet know exactly when or what the attacks will involve.
Israel’s red line
At the same time, the Israeli authorities remain on red alert, awaiting retaliation, but also the possibility of responding to any attack they receive. The key question is where Netanyahu’s red line is.
- The clear message: Israel according to axios has told the US that if Hezbollah harms Israeli civilians in retaliation for the killing of its top military commander, the response by the Israel Defense Forces will be disproportionate, two Israeli officials said.
- What could be the objectives: Two Israeli officials said that in recent days Israel has told the US through various military channels that it is concerned that Hezbollah could hit civilian population centers if it tries to target military bases in central Israel.
- An important example: The Hezbollah rocket attack that hit the village of Maidal Shams in the Golan Heights last month. Israeli officials said they believe Hezbollah targeted a military base but missed it and hit a soccer field, killing 12 children.
Clear messages from the USA and France
The United States has warned Iran and Israel that the conflict should not escalate, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said. “We have engaged in vigorous diplomacy with allies and partners, taking this message directly to Iran. We have communicated this message directly to Israel”
For his part, French President Emmanuel Macron urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid a “cycle of retaliation” over escalating tensions between Israel, Iran and Lebanon’s pro-Iranian Hezbollah, according to a statement. of Eliseh regarding the telephone communication that the two leaders had earlier.
“Just as he had urged the Iranian president to avoid a cycle of reprisals that would endanger the residents and the stability of the region, he urged the Israeli prime minister to follow the same logic,” says the press release of the French presidency.
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