Americans, Iranians, Israelis and Saudis are preparing for a dance of hell on the first anniversary of the US drone assassination in Baghdad of senior Iranian military official and General Qassem Soleimani. Will Iran get revenge? Are Trump and Netanyahu going to orchestrate a provocation that they could turn into a casus belli?
A magnetic mine was placed on the hull of an oil tanker in the northern Persian Gulf. Its discovery further heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif accuses Israel of plotting against American targets in order to provoke war between the United States and Iran. Zarif said Iran had received information from Iraqi sources that Israeli “agent provocateurs” were planning attacks on US targets. Israel vehemently denied, saying it was “totally absurd”.
Over the past few weeks, the United States has sent strategic B-52 bombers close to the Iranian coast on three occasions. They also deployed a nuclear submarine in the Persian Gulf from which they removed the aircraft carrier. USS Nimitz. Perhaps to put him out of the reach of Iranian retaliation. Several American warships armed with Tomahawk missiles still cross it there.
Israel has also decided to send a submarine there. Asked about this by Aljazeera, the spokesperson for the National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament, Abolfazl Amouei, said: “If an Israeli submarine arrives in the Gulf [persique], Iran will consider that it is an act of aggression and in this case, we will have the right to take revenge ”.
Iran has called on the UN Security Council to prevent further US “military adventurism” in the Gulf and Arabian Sea. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said Trump was looking for a pretext to start a war against Iran.
For his part, the head of the elite Iranian military force Al-Quds, General Esmail Ghaani, called Trump a “demented man” under the grip of Israel and Saudi Arabia. He warned, enigmatic, that “it is possible, even from within [sa] own house, that someone can take revenge on [son] crime”. Trump tweeted that he would hold Iran accountable if Americans were killed in an Iranian attack.
Is Trump so stupid and dangerous that he would start a war to distract from his attempts to overturn his electoral defeat and complicate his successor’s plans for the Middle East? He probably is. But, I think and hope the Pentagon wouldn’t let it. Though…
Since his electoral defeat, Trump has sacked the Secretary of Defense and several senior civilian leaders in the Pentagon and replaced them with individuals who are totally subservient to him and who answer to no one but him.
I believe Iran will do everything to avoid being drawn into war with the United States. Tehran is indeed counting on a drop in tensions with the coming to power of Biden, which would lead to the lifting of the sanctions which are destroying its economy ravaged by the coronavirus.
Like Trump, Netanyahu wants by all means to prevent the United States from joining the nuclear deal. A case of manifest provocation, the Mossad, at the end of November, assassinated the Pr Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, at the heart of Iran’s nuclear ambitions for decades. In reaction to the murder, in a misguided move, Iran has announced that it will increase its uranium enrichment to pre-2015 levels. In a concession to Biden, Tehran will be able to reverse this decision.
What’s better than a war to screw up Biden’s January 20 inauguration? We must act quickly. Hurry up.
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