There are days when the course of history seems to be governed by Murphy’s Law, according to which if something can go wrong, it will necessarily go wrong and at the worst possible moment. In other words: the implications of the resounding return of war to Israel send sharp thorns against international security
The first effect will inevitably be local and is already underway. What is often described as the only true democracy in the Middle East demands revenge for the barbarism that took thousands of lives within its territory, most innocent civilians. The political and religious translation of wounded pride will lead Benjamin Netanyahu – who returned to power thanks to an alliance with ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties – to embody even more radical positions and demand the unconditional support of his main ally.
In fact, it was no mere coincidence that the Israeli representative to the United Nations appealed so directly to American public opinion: “This is our 9/11.” For Biden, this is an issue with multiple implications, one of them being next year’s election in which he could once again face Donald Trump – who recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, which appeared on Netanyahu’s campaign posters and who criticized the recent agreement to release American prisoners in Iran, in exchange for the unfreezing of $6 billion held in South Korea.
Indeed, if there were still doubts about the international projections of this conflict, they were dispelled from the first hours, also by virtue of the armed reaction of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the declaration of support from Hamas’s largest partner. The Iranian government spokesman greeted “the energetic response of young Palestinians” and described the massacre as “a new chapter in the field of resistance.”
The timing of this resurgence of conflict is not innocent. Almost all commentators were quick to allude to the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.
But this anniversary, which is surely not innocent, may just be fireworks. The true intention of the extremists may be to interrupt a normalization process in the region, which in recent months was beginning to bear fruit. There was a first act in China, with the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and a second act seemed to go equally in the right direction, now involving, with the hand of Washington, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Instead of possible peace, we have inevitable war with unpredictable consequences. The thing is that in the previous episodes of the conflict it was not known how long the fighting would last, but it was known how it would end. Israel’s military superiority would eventually prevail. Will we be totally sure today that, this time, the same thing will happen? Will there ever be peace in the region or as Golda Meir said, or will this only happen “when the Arabs love their children more than they hate Israel”?
Secretary General PDP ÿ former Ambassador to Portugal
